France – England

Even if England officially won the 2016 Six Nations last week, there is still everything to play for in this last match of the tournament. The Three Lions will try to achieve the Grand Slam by winning all 5 matches when they meet France in Paris in a late blockbuster.

France had a chance to come into this match with a shot at winning the Six Nations but, as France usually does, they blew it. France was second best in a 19-28 defeat to Scotland, a match that came to confirm the fact that Les Bleus still have some way to go in order to achieve their former glory – even if they do seem to be on the right track with Guy Noves in charge. France did show plenty of quality and pragmatism in a home win over Ireland in the second round and had good passages of play against both Wales and Scotland, but also showed a lot of weaknesses, particularly last week in Edinburgh. With England coming to town, France will have a colossal task in adding to their 2 close wins against Italy and Ireland.

England responded in fantastic fashion after that group exit in their home World Cup. They were not as bad as advertised in RWC2015, but they took it to another level since Eddie Jones took over. Not only did England win all 4 matches so far, but they were never in real danger of losing any of them. Last week, in the match of the tournament, England defeated Wales 25-21, but the hosts had the match on lock due to exploding to a 19-0 advantage in the first part of the game – there was just no time for Wales to come back. Great rugby from the Three Lions in this tournament, excellent defense, solid scrum, top class wing play – difficult to find a weakness in this side.

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Team news & lineups:

Pelo is the only new injury for France, while England doesn`t have any new problems and will make just two changes to the lineup that beat Wales. The hosts will use more rotation especially in the back row, as Guy Noves desperately tries to avoid having tired legs in his lineup.

France: 15 Scott Spedding, 14 Wesley Fofana, 13 Gaël Fickou, 12 Maxime Mermoz, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 François Trinh-Duc, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Loann Goujon, 7 Bernard le Roux, 6 Damien Chouly, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Alexandre Flanquart, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Jefferson Poirot

England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Jack Nowell, 10 George Ford, 9 Danny Care, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 James Haskell, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 George Kruis, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Mako Vunipola

England won 5 of the last 8 Head 2 Head matches. There were three meetings last year. England and France split two close RWC2015 warm-ups, while England claimed a comfortable 55-35 win in the match that mattered, in the Six Nations. Recent Head 2 Head matches have generally been close, but this English team is a step above in quality this year and they have the immense motivation of completing the Grand Slam.

England will almost definitely have possession and territory in this game and France will be hard pressed to avoid making their usual handling errors. They will probably get the ball in their own 22 more often than not, so every error in that area could be fatal. By applying pressure and dominating the scrum (as expected), England will not give too many opportunities to France and will have time to steady break down the French defense.

I can also see France collapsing phisicaly and mentally in the second half. The hosts have 1 less day of rest compared to England and their players were involved in a lot of grueling Top 14 matches in the last weeks / months. England should be the fresher team and considering their superior motivation, they might well dismantle France in the closing stages of the match. The starting lineup of England has a lot of pace, so Eddie Jones is clearly counting on the French tired legs as well.

Simply put, France are just not good enough to deny England the Grand Slam. The visitors will control possession, apply steady pressure and claim a solid advantage in the first 60 minutes or so. As the match closes to an end and France fades away, a confident England should put it to bed and comfortably cover the spread.

My tip is England to win with a 7 point asian handicap, they have a clear blueprint on how to subdue France. Quality, chemistry, matchup, motivation and fitness are all in England’s favor here, so it is very difficult to see what solutions could France find. The line and the odds are excellent at Pinnacle for this bet, not sure if this great price for -7 will stay up too long, but lower odds are worth it as well. Prediction: France – England 14 – 28.

Pick: England -7
Odds: 2.02 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 10.20
Event date: 19 March