France – Iceland

France will host the surprise package of Iceland in the Euro 2016 quarterfinals, with the French thinking they got this one on lock. That might not be the case though.

The French have been underwhelming so far, their level of play was far below what was expected from the host Nation. The French barely beat Romania 2-1 with an 89th minute wonder goal, they beat Albania 2-0 with two goals in injury time after not shooting on target for 90 minutes and drew with Switzerland in a match where nobody tried to win. In Round 16, France beat Ireland 2-1, coming back from 0-1 down. France’s offensive game seems totally devoid of any tactical sense, while their defense was often embarrassed by 3 of the worst sides in the tournament (Ireland, Albania and Romania – all of them teams that don`t know how to attack).

After claiming 5 points to finish second in the group stage, Iceland shocked Europe with the 2-1 win over England, coming back from 0-1 down as well. Not only did Iceland win, but they fully deserved it. The Islanders were brilliant on counters, creating a lot of chances and defended well, which they had done in all of their undefeated Euro 2016 campaign so far. True, England was not at its best, but Iceland’s game probably had something to do with that.

Place your bet on France v Iceland with the best Euro 2016 odds at 1xBet.com now!

Team news & lineups:

While Iceland is injury free and can field its usual lineup, France has two deal with two key suspensions: Kante and Rami. They will likely be replaced by Cabaye and Umtiti.

France: Lloris – Sagna, Umtiti, Koscielny, Evra – Matuidi, Cabaye, Pogba – Griezmann, Giroud, Payet

Iceland: Halldorsson – Saevarsson, Arnason, Sigurdsson, Skulason – Gudmundsson, Gunnarsson, Sigurdsson, Bjarnason – Bodvarsson, Sighortsson

This is a very dangerous game for France. They did not look good so far in this tournament, despite winning 3 matches and drawing 1.

Iceland is the real deal and I actually disagree with people calling them a ‘miracle’. Sure, it is a miracle when you think about the population and their tradition in football, but the squad for the Euros, particularly the first 11, is strong, with many quality players from solid European sides. I also don`t agree that they are playing ugly football. I think their style of football, conceding possession and launching quick, precise counters is much more entertaining than the boring passing style employed by most top sides, which have 1 or 2 shots on goal per match (France included). The 4-4-2 might come back as the most popular formation in football, considering Icenald’s and Leicester’s success.

It must be noted France misses two players that would have been crucial against Iceland. Kante is the engine of the French midfield and with him out of that defensive midfield area, Iceland’s counterattacking game could become an even bigger danger. France has a bigger chance to be exposed in transition and transition is the best part of Iceland’s game. Rami is also a big miss – not that Umtiti wouldn`t be ready to step in his shoes, but France will have to deal with Iceland’s counters with a new, untested center back pairing.

I do believe Iceland’s gameplan is perfect to take on a team like France, just like it was against England. I can see France dominating but having problems to break down Iceland with individual play alone, while the Islanders should be very dangerous on the break against a team that looked shaky and out of sorts at the back against modest sides like Romania, Albania or Ireland – and that was with Kante and Rami in the team.

All in all, my tip is Iceland to cover the 1 goal asian handicap. I believe they will get a draw, though France might edge it in extra time. I`m thinking of their experience, home court advantage, individual quality and maybe will get a push by the referee as well – but Iceland definitely has the game to do damage here and I wouldn`t be shocked if they qualify. Odds are dropping on this handicap. Prediction: France – Iceland 1-1 (2-1 extra time).

Pick: Iceland (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.33 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 10.64
Event date: 3 July