France – Ireland

The last round in the Six Nations comes with a mammoth match-up between two sides in with a chance for the title, despite France needing a miracle to end up first.

France, Ireland and England are tied with 3 wins each. Ireland has +81 points difference, England +32, France +3. England will most likely win big against Italy earlier in the day so the scenario for France and Ireland is simple. If Ireland wins they will win the title almost for sure due to their excellent +81. France on the other hand needs a miracle, something in the region of a 50 point win – which is next to impossible, but the Les Bleus do have a chance and will fight for it.

France started the Six Nations on a high note with a brilliant (although a bit lucky) win over England and backed it up with a solid success against Italy, but what followed was a massive disappointment. A 27-6 defeat to Wales showcased obvious problems for the french and last week the team was utterly horrible in a last minute 19-17 win over a very poor Scottish side. Scotland was all over France in both possession and teritory and will wonder for a long time how on earth did they manage to lose that game. France has been a non-factor on the offensive end in the last two matches, unable to produce anything. Their kicking is poor (especially without Parra – who again won`t play), the lineout is turning the ball over 1 times out of two and the defense can be easily surprised through fast wing play. All in all, despite the three wins, the Les Bleus do not look like title contenders and are continuing their poor play since the 2011 World Cup.

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Ireland, with a new manager and a great mix of youth and experience, has emerged as the best team in European Rugby this year. The visitors easily won against Scotland, Wales and Italy but were also very good in the 13-10 road defeat to a solid England side. I really don’t have anything to say about the Irish other than the fact that they were the best team in this tournament and have played a very balanced brand of rugby, with no real weaknesses to show for and very good ball handling. Ireland will see legend Brian O’Driscoll play his last international game in this one, so that will be pretty emotional for everyone involved.

Lineups

France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Yoann Huget, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Gaël Fickou, 11 Maxime Médard, 10 Remi Tálès, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Damien Chouly, 7 Alexandre Lapandry, 6 Louis Picamoles, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Pascal Papé, 3 Nicolas Mas, 2 Dimitri Szarzewski, 1 Thomas Domingo

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Brian O’Driscoll, 12 Gordon D’Arcy, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Paul O’Connell (c), 4 Devin Toner, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.

Now, Ireland has a little more quality right now, is in much better form and much more disciplined and organized. France has home court advantage and is well known to perform at their best when they are written off. This mix of arguments would suggest Ireland is a small favorite, exactly in the region of the 1.75 odds set by the bookies. However, I feel Ireland has even more edge here. Firstly there is a big difference in coaching, which is always a hugely underrated aspect: Saint Andre is simply not at Joe Schmidt’s level and I can`t see how he could outplay his Irish rival. Secondly, while I am not too keen on conspiracy theories and vicious refereeing, the fact is that umpire Steve Walsh is well known to favor Ireland and even more so, hates and tends to “rob” England every time he gets the chance – an Irish win today would hurt England the most, so this could be an important factor if Walsh keeps the trend. Not lastly, Ireland has been the best at benefiting from opposition errors in this Six Nations and France is such an error-prone team. The visitors hold all kinds of matchup advantages, most notable the lineout and the kicking game, so that will make a big difference. All in all, I can`t really see how Ireland could lose this game considering all the advantages they have. Also, expect France to fade in the last 30 minutes or so when most likely all their championship chances will be gone. My tip is Ireland to win and cover the small 1,5 handicap. Prediction: France – Ireland 15-23. Bet of the day as far as I`m concerned.

Pick: Ireland (-1,5)
Odds: 1.91 @ William Hill
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.1
Event date: 15 March