France – Ireland

France will take on Ireland at Stade de France in Round one of the 2018 Six Nations Championship.

France’s rebuilding plan in the last few years under Guy Noves has failed, so the hosts will have another go at it, starting a new era in this Six Nations Championship under new manager Jaques Brunel. The French had a very poor 2017, failing to win any of their last 7 games of the year. In the Autumn Internationals they lost to New Zealand (twice), South Africa and were very lucky to salvage a draw against Japan (!!), all matches being played in France.

Ireland is the second favorite behind England to win the Six Nations and for good reason, as the Irish are arguably one of the Top 3 teams in the World right now. The visitors have a fantastic team and are very well coached, playing top class rugby consistently in the last couple of years. The last time Ireland got together was in the Autumn Internationals, when they defeated South Africa (by 35 !!), Argentina (by 9) and Fiji (by 3).

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Team news & lineups:

Jacques Brunel has rung the changes in his first game in charge, and this will be a new look France team here. Many key players are also out with injury, particularly the likes of Camille Lopez. As for Ireland, they don`t have too many problems and will field a strong and tested lineup.

France: 15 Geoffrey Palis, 14 Teddy Thomas, 13 Rémi Lamerat, 12 Henry Chavancy, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, Maxime Machenaud, 8 Kevin Gourdon, 7 Yacouba Camara, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 4 Arthur Iturria, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), Jefferson Poirot

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 James Ryan, 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy

France has a positive history against Ireland and Les Bleus have usually been able to hold their own even when Ireland was better rated, as it is the case now. However, France did lose most of the recent games, winning just once in the last 7 meetings (last year Ireland won 19-9 at home), and the difference between these two sides has rarely been bigger than it is now.

At the moment, the Irish are a step above in quality, and that is a fact. They are rated as just 1.40 favorites by the bookies, but in all honesty even that apparently low price might be too high.

This will be an almost experimental French team with six uncapped players in the match squad and two in the starting lineup. While the potential and the youth of this team will give the French fans positive feelings, fact is that it will be an untested lineup of questionable quality. The absence of the influential playmaker Camille Lopez, who will be replaced by 19 year old rookie Matthieu Jalibert, could be a big problem.

This young and untested French lineup seems prone to errors and lack of discipline against an experienced, well oiled machine like Ireland. It`s hard to believe this French group has what it takes to turn France’s fortunes around right from the first game, and against a clearly superior opponent – which played much better rugby than the French consistently over the last couple of years.

The youth and exuberance of this French team could make them create a couple of interesting plays, but in the end Ireland should be too strong. I expect the Irish to show more consistency, commit less handling errors, concede less penalties and simply be better overall – as they clearly are on paper. Their quality and experience should be too much for the French to handle, even at home.

My tip is Ireland to win. I will bet on the straight victory, as the handicap line is pretty high and I feel it could be tricky, but I trust my analysis enough to invest 10 units on this simple away win. Prediction: France – Ireland 16 – 23.

Pick: Ireland
Odds: 1.41 @ Unibet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 4.10
Event date: 3 February