France – Italy

High profile International rugby is back, as the Six Nations tournament starts this Saturday and the match between France and Italy will open it up.

France has underachieved big time in the Six Nations over the last years but they kept lying to themselves that things are not bad, particularly because of that run to the final in the 2011 World Cup. However, the humiliation suffered at the hands of New Zealand in last years’ World Cup finally woke France up and Les Bleus have started to make the needed changes. France will approach this match with a new manager, Guy Novès and a bunch of talented youngsters.

Italy is a massive “favorite” to claim the Wooden Spoon this year in the Six Nations, as this is pretty clearly the worst team in the tournament. Italy has gone backwards in recent years both with the national team and with club rugby. They have the weakest squad in a long time, due to both injuries and retirements. They had a horrible World Cup, where, aside from a close match with Ireland, they almost lost to Canada, struggled with Romania and lost by 22 to a sub par French team. The only bright spot is that Sergio Parisse is healthy for this tournament, he`s by far Italy’s most important player and this was clearly seen in the World Cup, where he played just once, but made it count, against Ireland.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams will field some new faces in the starting lineups, but you have to feel that France’s new talent is vastly superior to what the Italians have.

France: 15 Maxime Médard, 14 Hugo Bonneval, 13 Gaël Fickou, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Jules Plisson, 9 Sébastien Bezy, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Damien Chouly, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Paul Jedrasiak, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Eddy Ben Arous

Italy: 15 David Odiete, 14 Leonardo Sarto, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Mattia Bellini, 10 Carlo Canna, 9 Edoardo Gori, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Alessandro Zanni, 6 Francesco Minto, 5 Marco Fuser, 4 George Fabio Biagi, 3 Lorenzo Cittadini, 2 Ornel Gega, 1 Andrea Lovotti

France will be desperate to start strong and make a statement after the humiliation suffered in the World Cup. This new look French side has a lot of youth, power and speed, so I can see them playing very fast, opening the game up on the wings and exploiting Italy’s massive weaknesses there. France has a huge matchup advantage on the wings, which will very likely be too much for Italy to compensate.

France simply has more quality, they are as motivated as a team could be and this dusty Italian side, which doesn`t have too much confidence or belief, is not likely to be a threat. France won the last three matches by 21, 29 and 22 points – and they were a worse team than they are now, while Italy was better. France also won the last 8 home matches against Italy by at least 12 points. Six of those 8 were by 21 or more points.

France should cruise in this match so I will tip them to cover the spread, but I will keep the stakes on this bet within reason, because the line set by the bookies is pretty high at about 20 points. I was hoping for something like -16 or -17, but I still think France will win it by about 25. Prediction: France – Italy 38 – 13.

Pick: France -20,5
Odds: 2.00 @ Betsafe
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7
Event date: 6 February