France – Italy

The Six Nations returns after a one week break, and the first match of Round 3 will see France take on Italy on Friday night, at Stade Velodrome in Marseille.

France has been pretty impressive in the first two rounds despite losing both matches, as they put on a good showing against both Ireland and Scotland. The new look French side lost via a last second drop goal against the strong Irish, and went toe to toe with Scotland in Edinburgh, eventually losing by 6 points late in the game. Now Jacques Brunel will fancy getting his first win as manager of France as he faces his former emplyer, Italy.

The Italians were blown out in their first two games, losing at home to England by 31 points and away to Ireland by 37 points. Nobody expected them to do any damage in those matches, but somehow Italy still managed to disappoint, failing to cover the spread in any of those two games – which translates to them playing worse than expected. Italy has lost their previous 14 Six Nations games, and their chances to end that run today seem rather slim.

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Team news & lineups:

France will make 5 changes to the lineup that lost in Scotland two weeks ago, as they continue to be hampered by injuries. Their problems are particularly notable at the No.10 position and in the back three. Italy isn`t fully healthy either, but they have no new injuries. The Italians will change three players compared to the lineup that was humbled in Ireland two weeks ago.

France: 15 Hugo Bonneval, 14 Benjamin Fall, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Geoffrey Doumayrou, 11 Rémy Grosso, 10 Lionel Beauxis, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Marco Tauleigne, 7 Yacouba Camara, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 4 Paul Gabrillagues, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado, 1 Jefferson Poirot

Italy: 15 Matteo Minozzi, 14 Tommaso Benvenuti, 13 Tommaso Boni, 12 Tommaso Castello, 11 Mattia Bellini, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Marcello Violi, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Maxime Mbanda, 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Dean Budd, 4 Alessandro Zanni, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Andrea Lovotti

While this French lineup doesn`t look particularly strong, the situation is not much different than it was against Ireland or Scotland. The French are committed to changing the guard, and it worked very well for them in the first two matches, despite the results.

France showed a lot of enthusiasm and explosiveness against Ireland and Scotland, and will surely come out with the same intensity here against Italy. They are at home and know a win is within their grasp, so expect plenty of effort from the French.

Italy is just not good right now, they haven`t been good in years, and changes are not in sight. Their club teams are performing better this season, but that is not translating to the national team. The Italians failed to cover the point spread in their first two matches and the line seems to be too low yet again this time, as it sits at just 17 points.

During their current 14 game losing streak, the Italians lost by less than 17 points only twice (one of them being by 16)! They also lost by 22 points at home to France last year. Since they haven`t improved at all during this stretch, it`s hard to explain why the line is so low here, even if France misses important players.

Italy will probably be able to compete for stretches here, but in the end an enthusiastic and in form French side should have too much at home, and win the game easily. The hosts will definitely chase the offensive bonus point, so expect them to go for tries as often as possible.

My tip is France to cover the 16.5 point handicap. The -17 (asian) bet also looks like it could be a good idea at slightly higher odds, but it`s not as widely available as the 16.5. Prediction: France – Italy 39 – 14.

Pick: France -16.5
Odds: 1.84 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.72
Event date: 23 February