France – Japan

France will play their last test of 2017 with the hope of claiming their first win since March, while Japan will see this as an opportunity to evaluate their current level against Tier 1 opposition, and potentially steal a famous result.

After a relatively successful Six Nations in which they finished third, the French looked to be on the rise, but their following results failed to confirm a potential resurgence. After a 0-3 series whitewash at the hands of South Africa in the Summer, in which France had valid attenuating circumstances, Les Bleus failed to impress in the two tests played in November as well. A 20 point loss at the hands of New Zealand was again a somewhat understandable result, but the 1 point loss against South Africa last week was disappointing, and the level of play was poor as well.

Japan played two tests so far this Autumn (both at home), losing the first one 30-63 against Australia, but bouncing back with a solid 39-6 victory over Tonga. The loss against Australia showed that for all of their offensive quality, the Japanese can still have serious lapses in defense. Still, they went on to play very well against Tonga, although the result should have been closer, and they will be eager to prove they are banging at the door of Tier 1 status when they meet France in Nanterre.

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Team news & lineups:

France will rest some players here, making no less than 8 changes to the lineup which lost against South Africa. Japan will obviously use the best available starting XV in what will be a massive match for them.

France: 15 Scott Spedding, 14 Gabriel Lacroix, 13 Damian Penaud, 12 Henry Chavancy, 11 Teddy Thomas, 10 Francois Trinh-Duc, 9 Baptiste Serin, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Sekou Macalou, 6 Judicaël Cancoriet, 5 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 4 Romain Taofifenua, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Jefferson Poirot

Japan: 15 Kotaro Matsushima, 14 Lomano Lemeki, 13 Timothy Lafaele, 12 Harumichi Tatekawa, 11 Kenki Fukuoka, 10 Yu Tamura, 9 Yutaka Nagare, 8 Amanaki Mafi, 7 Michael Leitch (c), 6 Kazuki Himeno, 5 Shinya Makabe, 4 Wimpie van der Walt, 3 Jiwon Koo, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Keita Inagaki

While France is the better team, Japan is a side which must be respected, as they have proved they can compete with the top sides on any given day – not only in their win against South Africa at the 2015 RWC, but also one year ago in Wales, when they barely lost by 3 points.

France resting players and mixing up the lineup will be dangerous against this Japanese side – who is rested and ready to go after having an easier game last week, and whose fast quick wing attacks can punish any chemistry or communication error France will make.

Les Bleus would have had to be wary of Japan even with a full strength side, but this becomes a really dangerous matchup with the French resting players, and they have to be careful in order to keep things under control.

France`s lack of confidence and their poor morale will also be a downside for the hosts, particularly as they meet a Japan team which will be rested, fully motivated and will fight their hearts out in one of their biggest matches in recent history.

Look for an entertaining, fast paced game of rugby, with both teams putting points on the board and Japan staying within toughing distance of a weakened French team. Japan`s fast play on the wings could create some havoc and they should get some tries here.

Even though ultimately France will have too much, Japan should cover the point spread, which is set incredibly high at 21.5 points, and well worthy of an 8 unit bet in my opinion – so my tip will be Japan to lose by less than 21.5 points. Prediction: France – Japan 39 – 28.

Pick: Japan +21,5
Odds: 1.91 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 25 November