France – Romania

Romania will make its debut in the 2015 Rugby World Cup against France, who already played one match against Italy and got a solid 32-10 victory. Ireland and Canada are also in the group. The French side started as a 44,5 point favorite but the line is going down fast – and it just might be true that the bookies gave them too much credit with the opening odds.

France 22 point win over Italy was a good sign for Philippe Saint-André’s mercurial side, though it was largely facilitated by Italy’s injury problems – particularly that of Sergio Parisse, the most important man in the Azzuri side. While it`s never a good idea to count out France, the truth is “Les Bleus” have been underperforming big time in the last few years. In 2013 they had a historically bad Six Nations campaign, finishing with the wooden spoon and they did not do much better in 2014 and 2015, finishing 4th each time.

For the match against Romania France will almost all key players, with Philippe Saint-André looking to give everybody a chance and keep the most important guys fresh for the match against Ireland, which is going to surely determine the first placed team in the group. No less than 13 changes will be made compared to the match against Italy (official lineup has already been published).

Romania is one of the weakest teams in the RWC, but the perennial World Cup participants will draw confidence from a good showing by underdogs so far in the tournament. Romania also has some strong spots, which countries like Uruguay or Namibia don`t have. We`re talking about the forwards and the scrum, categories in which Romania can truly mix it up with the best sides in the World and they actually should be able to dominate France in these departments, which is no small thing. Also, for the first time in a long time, Romania’s best player is a fullback / wing – Catalin Fercu (Saracens). This will give the Oaks a “B plan” aside from the usual forward play. Romania is extremely similar to the impressive Georgia side that beat Tonga on Saturday, just a bit weaker.

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Lineups:

France: 15. Brice Dulin, 14. Sofiane Guitoune, 13. Gaël Fickou, 12. Wesley Fofana, 11. Noa Nakaitaci, 10. Rémi Talès, 9. Morgan Parra, 8. Louis Picamoles, 7. Fulgence Ouedraogo, 6. Yannick Nyanga, 5. Alexandre Flanquart, 4. Bernard le Roux, 3. Uini Atonio, 2. Dimitri Szarzewski (c), 1. Vincent Debaty

Romania: 1. Mihai Lazăr, 2. Otar Turashvili, 3. Paulică Ion, 4. Valentin Popârlan, 5. Johan Van Heerden, 6. Valentin Ursache, 7. Viorel Lucaci, Mihai Macovei, 9. Florin Surugiu, 10. Dănuţ Dumbravă, 11. Adrian Apostol, 12. Florin Vlaicu, 13. Paula Kinikinilau, 14. Mădălin Lemnaru, 15. Cătălin Fercu

Listen, France is a couple of classes above Romania and even with the substitutes, even if they play a poor match – they will probably win this one comfortably. But the handicap line is just too high. Romania has a good team this year, they have many guys playing in France and they have the speedster Fercu from Saracens, a top quality player – even if he`s not usually in the first team of the current English champions. The Oaks are also very experienced, they have that World class scrum and should be able to pose some problems to the French.

There`s also the fact that Romania is well known to start World Cups strong and fade away towards the end. This should be even more valid with the old, experienced team that traveled to England. In 2007 Romania almost beat Italy in the first game, in 2011 they led Scotland with less than 10 minutes to go.

Look for France to play a mediocre game at best, they really don`t care much about this game aside from scoring 4 tries and getting the bonus point. On the other hand, Romania will give it all they have and will likely play their best match of the tournament here. They should be able to score a try themselves with the forwards in addition to a couple of penalties. The line is moving down, so you might want to take this early. My tip is Romania to cover the +43,5 points handicap, but I would be comfortable with lines as low as 35.5, depending on the odds. Prediction: France – Romania 42-13.

Pick: Romania +43,5
Odds: 1.80 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 23 September