France – Romania

Romania will have the honor of playing the opening match of Euro 2016 against host nation France, but the Eastern Europeans might not feel happy at the end of the day, as France is rated as a 1.30 favorite to win by the oddsmakers.

France is the main favorite to lift the Euro 2016 title according to the bookies and while I do not agree with that, France is definitely one of the strongest sides in the tournament. Les Bleus have a young, dynamic squad and scored no less than 13 goals in the last 4 matches (all won), including a 3-0 win over Scotland in the last outing. They can be scary good at times. Being the host nation, they did not play qualifiers and this will be their first official match in a while. With the pressure of opening the tournament at home, it could be a problem. Benzema missing is also a blow, but I reckon Giroud will do very well with the likes of Griezmann and Payet at his side – especially against the likes of Romania.

The visitors had a very solid qualifying campaign, finishing undefeated and allowing only 2 goals. However, the group was unbelievably easy, with Hungary and Northern Ireland as the main opponents and Romania only finished second behind the Brits. With little to no individual quality, Romania relies on tactical discipline and a good defense and these tactics worked as a charm, as the team lost just one time in the last 19 matches. However, that record is definitely misleading: Romania mostly played against poor teams and only met good sides in friendlies. The visitors were poor in preparation to Euro 2016, drawing with Congo, losing 3-4 to Ukraine (were down 1-4) and beating Georgia 5-1 in a match where Georgia simply did not show up.

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Team news & lineups:

France obviously misses Benzema (not called up), but otherwise the two teams can field their best lineups. Captain Chiriches is slightly doubtful for Romania, but he should start.

France: Lloris – Sagna, Rami, Koscielny, Evra – Pogba, Kante, Matuidi – Griezmann, Giroud, Payet

Romania: Tatarusanu – Sapunaru, Chiriches, Grigore, Rat – Hoban, Pintilii – Torje, Stanciu, Stancu – Keseru

I don`t necessarily expect France to be at its best here, they know they have time to build playing relations in this easy group, but it is the opening match and they surely want to start strong in front of their own fans. Les Bleus have players with tremendous experience and they should be able to manage the situation in their favor – after all, they had two years to prepare for this match. Even if France is at 75 – 80% of its potential, I reckon they should comfortably rout Romania here.

Romania will play a defensive match, despite them bragging that they will not park the bus. On paper, the Romanians have a very good defense, but fact is that individually the players at the back are very poor. Romania relies on a solid tactical setup at the back, but if France finds the key to unlock Romania’s that defensive setup, this could get ugly. I can see an evenly matched clash for some minutes, with France finally scoring at one point in the first half, maybe adding another. From then on, Romania might collapse.

My tip is France to win with a 1,25 asian handicap, they are simply in another football world than Romania. There`s simply no quality in this Romania team and I reckon time will tell that they are one of the worst 2-3 teams in this tournament – they might actually be the worst in terms of individual quality. I love the fact that Romania’s record of not losing recently provides good odds for France here, so I will invest maximum stakes with confidence.

You shouldn`t take my correct score prediction seriously, I just have a feeling that this might get out of control, so I`ll give it a shot. 2-0 would be enough for my bet and I would be fully satisfied with that. France’s offense should cover the handicap here. Prediction: France – Romania 7-0.

Pick: France (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.78 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.80
Event date: 10 June