France – Scotland

Two improving teams in the form of France and Scotland will square off in a key match, set to determine which of them can realistically challenge for the Six Nations title.

The hosts are finally starting to resemble the France of old, as they took important steps forward in the last months under Guy Noves. The French were solid in the November tests, playing close matches against the likes of Australia and New Zealand and showing a more focused, error free brand of Rugby. Their Six Nations opener last week came to confirm the improvements as France only lost by 3 points in England. However, this time against Scotland a close loss won`t be enough anymore.

The Scots claimed a brilliant win in the first round against an Irish side that is considered by many to be the 3rd best in the World right now. Scotland started strong, Ireland got back into the match but the Scots showed great spirit to deliver the killing blow at the end, winning 27-22. Scotland`s improvement under Vern Cotter has been undeniable as the team has gotten better and better in the last couple of years and seems ready to even challenge for the Six Nations title.

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Team news & lineups:

Each team will only make one change compared to last week. The only missing player is Wilson (Scotland) and he can surely be replaced.

France: 15 Scott Spedding, 14 Noa Nakaitaci, 13 Rémi Lamerat, 12 Gaël Fickou, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Camille Lopez, 9 Baptiste Serin, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Kévin Gourdon, 6 Loann Goujon, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Cyril Baille

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Tommy Seymour, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw(c), 8 Josh Strauss, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 John Barclay, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Fraser Brown, 1 Allan Dell

France has dominated the H2H matchup against Scotland in recent years, but the Scots won the last meeting in convincing fashion: 29-18 last year at Murrayfield.

Both teams have improved and are playing well, but you have to feel Scotland is the better side. Their progress started before the progress of France and it actually translated into wins, while France has not yet managed to win a big test against a top tier 1 side. That difference in confidence might be the decisive factor, even though France’s home court advantage will even things out.

The scenario under which the game will be played should be pretty straightforward. The French will rely on their dominant scrum and their explosive forwards, while Scotland will try to get the ball out wide, as their backs are some of the best in world rugby.

France will need to be very careful to avoid the temptation of playing out wide, otherwise they will be in deep trouble. I think there`s a good chance they will fall into this trap, as they have often tried to play expansive under Guy Noves and with the crowd behind them (not to mention their history of crumbling under pressure), they might want to do too much.

In what should be a close game, Scotland also has the advantage of a better kicking game and a fantastic penalty taker in Laidlaw. His accurate kicking might well bring Scotland those precious points needed to edge the game.

Fact is that the Scots are the more accomplished side at the moment, with palpable results, as opposed to a French side that is showing promise, but without wins to definitely prove their progress.

Look for a close, entertaining game of rugby that can go either way and the handicap on Scotland definitely has great value. The point spread shouldn`t be higher than 3-4 points here and even then it would be a good bet to go with the Scots.

A southern Hemisphere referee might also help Scotland’s style of running rugby, while making it more difficult for France to milk penalties with the scrum – just another details that goes in Scotland’s favor, like most of these details seem to do today.

My tip is Scotland to cover the 7 point handicap and I believe they will win this game, or lose by no more than 2-3 points.. Prediction: France – Scotland 24 – 26.

Pick: Scotland +7
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.30
Event date: 12 February