Tiafoe – Seppi

Frances Tiafoe will take on Andreas Seppi on Thursday night in an evenly matched third round fixture at the 2019 Australian Open.

Tiafoe entered Melbourne in poor form. The American played badly at the end of 2018, and started 2019 with four losses in four matches in Hopman Cup and Sydney (vs Tsitsipas, Federer, Norrie and Millman). However, the talented Tiafoe found his groove out of nowhere here at the Australian Open. Tiafoe played some great tennis to defeat Gunneswaran 3-0 and then the fifth seeded Anderson 3-1, coming back from 0-1 down.

Seppi started off the year very well. He lost to Rublev in the first round in Doha, but the following week managed to reach the final in Sydney, defeating the likes of Chardy or Tsitsipas before losing a tight final against Alex De Minaur. Seppi continued on the same note here in Melbourne, playing consistent tennis to get past Johnson (3-1) and Thompson (3-0).

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This will be the first meeting between the two players. It will be a battle between Seppi`s consistency and experience against Tiafoe`s dynamism and exuberance.

Both players have been great this week and it`s hard to see any one of them going down without a fight. For this reason, betting the over looks like a good idea at first sight. However, the line is pretty high at 40 games and it may be risky considering that neither of these guys own big time serves, so tiebreaks are far from a guarantee. As such, it`s very possible that a bet on over 40 games might actually require 5 sets to be a winner, so that`s definitely a big risk to take at those odds.

Taking the over 3,5 sets bet is definitely much safer, and the odds are very competitive as far as I`m concerned, even if we are talking about a lower price (1.50).

Look for both guys to alternate stretches of dominance in the match.

Seppi is playing at a very linear and consistent level, while Tiafoe is a bit inconsistent and has ups and downs during a match. This should work well for the over 3,5 set bet, as Tiafoe will dominate when he`s on fire, but when he loses a bit of steam he will be frustrated by Seppi`s experience and consistency from the baseline.

My tip here will be over 3,5 sets. It looks unlikely that either one of these two can maintain a leading position in the match for three straight sets, considering their excellent form and the matchup. Prediction: Frances Tiafoe – Andreas Seppi 6-3 5-7 2-6 6-4 3-6.

Pick: over 3,5 sets
Odds: 1.50 @ 10Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4
Event date: 18 January