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High profile encounter between Gael Monfils and Andy Murray, as both men will be looking to reach their second career semifinal at Roland Garros.
Monfils was not expected to reach the quarterfinals considering the fact that he played zero tennis in the month before Roland Garros due to an ankle injury. Even his presence in Paris was questionable, but Monfils recovered in style and put on some solid performances to reach the quarters. Still, the frenchman did not face top class opposition so far (def. Hanescu in 4 sets, Struff in 3, Garcia Lopez in 3) and had big problems against Fognini in the 3rd round, winning in 5 sets but making almost 60 unforced errors and losing one set to nil. He went on to play better against Garcia Lopez in the 4th round but he limped at times and questions are rising again about his fitness coming into the Murray match.
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Andy`s struggles after last years back surgery seem over. After taking some months to get in shape, Murray finally showed what he is capable of in a narrow loss to Nadal in Madrid and backed up that performance with some great tennis here in Roland Garros. Murray defeated Golubev (in 4 sets) and Matosevic (in 3) before playing a marathon with an in-form Phillipp Kohlschreiber, winning 12-10 in the deciding set. I expected Andy to have problems against Verdasco following that match, but the Brit came out with a masterclass performance, his best of the tournament, and easily took care of Fernando in 3 sets.
Murray leads the H2H 3-2, 1-1 on clay. Monfils won the last meeting in 2010. The matchup does not favor any of the two players. The red dirt suits Monfils better, however Andy always stated that clay is his favorite surface – despite not having very good results on it – and his latest results seem to back up that statement.
I can not see an upset here and I expect Andy Murray to get a similar win like the one against Verdasco. Monfils had a good year, he`s playing good in this tournament, but he’s not at his best level and he did have a fair share of luck with the draw. His ups and downs during a match will be suicide against a player of Murray caliber, who is very steady lately. Most of all Gael’s fitness is very questionable after he limped in his last two matches – especially considering that he carried an injury into this tournament. My tip will be Andy Murray to win with a 1,5 set handicap and it might be wise to take this bet early, as the odds are dropping. Also, betting with a bookie that does not void the bet in case retirement might be a good idea (though I don`t expect Monfils to retire). Prediction: Gael Monfils – Andy Murray 4-6 6-7 3-6.
Pick: Murray (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 1.87 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.96
Event date: 4 June
