Monfils – Goffin

Gael Monfils and David Goffin square off on Thursday afternoon in what should be a really exciting third round match at the ATP Masters event in Shanghai.

Monfils is on a roll right now, coming after two semifinal showings at the US Open and in Tokyo. The Frenchman confirmed his excellent form with a solid 7-6 6-3 win over Kevin Anderson in the second round in Shanghai, in what was the only match he played this week (he had a bye in the first round).

Gofin is in fantastic form himself. After a slow start in the Asian swing (lost to Jaziri in the Shenzen 1st round), Goffin played some great tennis in Tokyo, reaching the final and losing a very tight match to Nick Kyrgios – who also defeated Monfils in the semis. Here in Shanghai, Goffin defeated Del Potro (2-1) and Paire (2-0), building on the great form he showed in Tokyo.

Monfils leads the Head 2 Head 2-0 (1-0 on hard), but both wins were very tough and needed a deciding set. The latest H2H match was played just months ago in Toronto and it was a 7-2 2-6 6-4 win for the Frenchman.

Both players are in top form and at the same time both can have ups and downs during a match. In these conditions, I find it hard to believe that any of the two will be able to dominate for the entire match and win in straight sets. Expect some great shotmaking in this one and both players should have their moments of controlling the tempo.

I can see this one going to a deciding set, as it was the case with both previous meetings. But with an over 22 games line, the bet can also be covered (or at least void) in two tight sets.

All that being said, my tip here is over 22 games. I`m buying half a point compared to the standard 22,5 line in order to get insurance in case of a 7-6 6-3. A stake of 7 units seems to me like a proper investment on this bet. Prediction: Gael Monfils – David Goffin 4-6 6-2 5-7.

Pick: over 22 games
Odds: 1.76 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.32
Event date: 13 October