Monfils – Federer

Gael Monfils takes on Roger Federer in the second match of the Davis Cup final between France and Switzerland, set to begin after Tsonga – Wawrinka. The meeting takes place in Lille, indoor clay.

Monfils played some excellent tennis this season, really top class at times, but after the heartbreaking loss against Federer at the US Open he slowed down a bit, posting a semifinal exit at Metz (lost to Sousa) and a third round exit in Paris (lost to Djokovic). Gael has looked a bit more consistent in 2014 but still not on par with the top guys, actually he only has two wins against Top 10 players this season – against an out of form Gasquet and against Dimitrov.

There were big question marks about Federer`s presence in this Davis Cup final after he had to withdraw from the final at the O2 in London with a back injury. However, Roger was passed fit to play and I have no doubt he prepared very well for this once in a lifetime opportunity. He was in absolute top form prior to retiring last week and you can expect him to come out at the same level today, though he will probably be slowed down a bit by the clay surface.

Bet on Gael Monfils vs. Roger Federer with the best Davis Cup final odds at Unibet.

The H2H is 8-2 for Federer. He did play a lot of close matches against Gael but surprisingly not on clay, where Roger leads 4-0 and lost just one out of 12 sets played. The H2H this year is 2-0, with the last meeting being a thriller at the US Open, where Federer came back from a 0-2 set deficit to win.

The odds on Federer are very solid because of his back injury, but I have seen him too many times to know that he manages to bring his best in these kind of situations. I think the odds represent a great opportunity, the 1.30 with which the bookies opened was the correct price. Monfils is not at his best right now so I expect Roger to dominate him like he always did on clay, winning this in no more than 4 sets. We know this is not Fed`s best surface, but it`s not Gael`s best either. The sole advantage I see for Monfils here is that he had more time to prepare, but I don`t think it can be decisive. Home court advantage should not count too much with Roger`s experience.

My tip is Federer to win and cover the -1,5 set handicap, I also expect Switzerland to narrowly defeat France in this Davis Cup final. Prediction: Gael Monfils – Roger Federer 5-7 6-3 3-6 4-6.

Pick: Federer (-1,5 set handicap)
Odds: 1.76 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.08
Event date: 21 November