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Gael Monfils and Roger Federer will take the court in a blockbuster 3rd round at the ATP Masters event held on the slow clay of Monte Carlo.
Monfils already has 2 wins under his belt, but he hasn`t been quite convincing so far this week – as he hasn`t been all season. Monfils should have lost in the first round against Kuznetsov and he followed that 3 sets win with a better performance against Dolgopolov, 7-6 7-6, but still not playing his best tennis and he was lucky to win it in two. That match could have went either way, as Gael won just one more point than Dolgo. Monfils seems a bit rusty phisically after his retirement with a hip injury in Miami.
Federer cruised in the first round against Chardy, leaving the Frenchman with just three games. On paper the slow clay at Monte Carlo is Federer’s worst surface, but he has been playing better and better on it, with excellent results in the past years – with the highlight being last years’ final, a close loss to Wawrinka. Roger stated that he feels very good on the red dirt, he`s fit and happy with his level of play.
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The Head 2 Head is 8-3 for Federer (4-1 on clay), but Monfils won a lopsided match in their last meeting (on clay), the Davis Cup final last year. However, Federer was injured in that match, so it doesn’t really count. The recent Head 2 Head matches have generally been close.
Despite a better performance against Dolgopolov, Monfils still seems a little bit off his game, particularly his movement looking sub par. Dolgo was unlucky not to take advantage, but surely a red hot Federer will not get into a position where luck is involved. I`m confident the Swiss Maestro will see this out in two sets, speculating Monfils’ slower than usual movement and his general rustiness.
I reckon it`s really improbable for a Monfils that is not playing at his best to be able to challenge a Federer who is close to his best level of tennis. Gael is clearly not at the level he was when he was pushing Federer to the limit last year. My tip is Federer to win in two sets – because the game line at -4 seems a bit too high at similar odds with the -1,5 set handicap bet. Prediction: Gael Monfils – Roger Federer 4-6 4-6.
Live streaming for Monfils vs. Federer available at Bet365 for all funded accounts.
Pick: Federer -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.87 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.96
Event date: 16 April
