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Crowd favorite Gael Monfils will take on Victor Hanescu in the Rolland Garros 1st round, Tuesday 27th of May. It will be Monfils’ first match in one month and Romanian number 1 Hanescu will hope to capitalize on his opponents’ questionable fitness.
Monfils suffered an ankle injury one month ago in Bucharest and has not played since. His presence on the Roland Garros main draw was questionable but it seems that Gael will eventually play, and he already made a statement in front of the crowd with a crazy dance on Phillipe Chatrier a couple of days ago. Still, it remains to be seen if the frenchman is fully fit for the match against Hanescu and how he will handle the 1 month break he had to go trough. Otherwise Monfils had a very good year with 1 title and 1 final to his name, and he is clearly improving his game, being on track for a top 10 finish at the end of the year.
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Romanian journeyman Victor Hanescu is by no means a match for Monfils’ talent but he had a decent year so far and clay is by far his best surface. A former quarterfinalist at Roland Garros, the 85th ranked Hanescu is on the back of a semifinal showing at Oeiras in Portugal, losing to Tomas Berdych (his second QF or better on clay this season). He did not play in the last 2 weeks so he should be fresh for today, an important factor since Hanescu is well known for his fitness and stamina issues.
The H2H is 3-2 for Monfils (2-2 on clay), but Hanescu won the last meeting in 2011 in Stuttgart. Surprisingly, the Romanian has always seemed to have a matchup advantage over Monfils on clay, making it difficult for Gael to play against him.
The bookmakers had Monfils at about 1.50, but the odds dropped big time in the last two days. Indeed, the frenchman is by far the better player here, but I think the bookies were right to suggest a rather close match. Hanescu is a solid clay court player and if he produces his best tennis he can hold his own against any player outside of the top 10. Monfils has just too many question marks looming over his head right now: is he fit? how will he play after more than 1 month without tennis? and is Hanescu really a bad match-up for him? In these circumstances I will pick the in-form Hanescu to win, but only at a bookie which does not void the bet in case of retirement. Ladbrokes validates the bet even if a single point has been played, so I`ll go with their odds here, which are very good anyway. My tip is Hanescu to win. I would not advise handicaps because if Monfils comes out in maximum form he could win this easy. I could be way off here of course, but I`ll go with a score prediction of Gael Monfils – Victor Hanescu 6-2 6-7 3-6 RET. There`s value on this bet, that`s for sure.
Pick: Hanescu
Odds: 3.40 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 12
Event date: 27 May
