Muguruza – Williams

Garbine Muguruza Venus Williams betting preview

Venus Williams will attempt to become the oldest Grand Slam Winner on the women`s draw since 1968, as she takes on a rejuvenated Garbine Muguruza Blanco on the Wimbledon grass.

There wasn`t much to suggest Garbine Muguruza will make a deep run at Wimbledon, as the Spaniard had a mediocre season and didn`t play very well in her two grass court tournaments prior to SW19. However, Garbine managed to pull herself together and lost a single set en route to the Wimbledon final, defeating the likes of Kerber, Kuznetsova, or the surprising Rybarikova (6-1 6-1 in the semifinals). It will be the second Wimbledon final for Garbine, despite her not being known for her grass court game.

Venus Williams also lost a single set during the tournament, and got better and better once the rounds went by. The American is on the back of a masterclass performance against Johanna Konta in the semifinals (6-4 6-2), demolishing the in form Brit with a perfect game on both serve and return. She also played some great tennis in the quarters against the Roland Garros champion, Ostapenko. Venus will attempt to win her 11th Grand Slam title today, and her 6th at Wimbledon.

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Venus Williams leads the H2H 3-1, but the two players never met before on grass. Muguruza won the last meeting this year in three sets on clay. It would be a stretch to say Venus has a matchup advantage, fact is that the green Wimbledon courts favor her – as grass is her best surface, while also being (on paper at least) Muguruza’s worst.

You can nitpick about Muguruza not facing top opposition and having a few ups and downs on serve during the last two weeks, but fact is she did play great attacking minded tennis to reach this stage and nobody can take that away from her.

However, there is a questionmark over her capability to produce the same level of tennis against Venus Williams – or, more accurately, if Venus will let her.

The American has been brilliant from the baseline and with her returns these weeks, so chances are she won`t give Muguruza the same amount of time the Spaniard had in her previous matches. If Venus hits her returns quick and deep like she did against Konta, she will put Muguruza under big pressure, not allowing her the time she needs to set up those powerful winners.

The above scenario has a good shot to happen considering the experience of Venus and the fact that she already played a big hitter similar to Muguruza this week (the QF against Ostapenko). Add the fact that Muguruza is not a particularly great server, and you can expect the Spaniard to run into some trouble on serve.

If that happens it would be a game winner for Venus, as her own serve is some of the very best in women’s tennis and worked like a charm in this tournament. Venus allowed only one break of serve in her last three matches, which is remarkable for women`s tennis, and there will be only so much that Muguruza can do on the return.

I backed Venus Williams to win Wimbledon since before it began and although I had some doubts over the course of the tournament (missing some great bets), I see no reason to change my mind coming into this final. She played championship caliber tennis, raising her level as the rounds have gone by, and it looks like she has saved her best for the last couple of matches. Against Muguruza, she definitely has the weapons and tactical opportunities to dominate.

I expect Venus to use her form and experience to tactically outplay Muguruza, take her time away and force the Spaniard out of her comfort zone. My tip is Venus Williams to win. Prediction: Garbine Muguruza – Venus Williams 5-7 3-6.

Pick: Venus Williams
Odds: 2.10
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.80
Event date: 15 July

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

10 comments

  1. 5 4 and 40 15 Venus.. At that point Venus crcked , 9 games in a row for Garbine. She just crushed her like a bug

    • Yep it was looking pretty good at that point, but after that long rally at 15-40 everything just ended abruptly. Have no idea what happened to Venus and why she disappeared like that. Credit to Muguruza for a solid final though.

  2. This is what happening when you bet on womens. I mean anything can happen. The fact is that Venus did not play at this wimbledon agains a player that has a good return. When she did she got destroyed.it s obvious that she feel inconfortable when the rally is long and Muguruza is good at that unlike Ostapenko or Konta . Congrats to muguruza to a perfect and well deserved tournament

    • You make fair points and I generally agree with you. Definitely not a fan of betting on women`s tennis. But this was not about the unpredictability / inconsistency of women`s tennis. Muguruza was just better, returning great, as you said. The first set was a coin toss, but to be honest I think she would have won anyway.
       
      Hope you`re doing well after that New Zealand fiasco?!

  3. Thanx.well not so great. However i did not make anything as stupid as that to recover my loss. I ve bet two times since then both with small stakes but both loses. Of course the smartest choice is not to bet anymore. Through years i ve learned that bets are designed to lose the prove is how bookmarkers are in rising every year.even when i had good runs with profit.inevitably come bad times with loses .gambling should be restricted like in other countries but thats another story 😀

    • Sorry to hear that. Honestly I know what you are going trough, happened to me more than once when I was younger. As long as you didn`t steal / gamble you house, you should eventually be fine if you don`t do anything stupid.
       
      I don`t want to enable you, but you are wrong. You are not betting against the bookmaker, you are basically betting against other people. When you bet on X, bookies raise the odds on Y and draw bets on Y. They win anyway due to the “juice”. Betfair exchange is a good example, there is no bookmaker there, you are literally betting against other people.

  4. I ve never wrote you bet against bookies. And bottom of line it really dosen t matter against who you bet.The rules and the odds are deceided by them.if you bet on x and i bet on y they won.it s a long discuss. I remember one time i was robbed by bet365 one of the …”top class bookies “

    • My point was you and the bookie can win together without any problems, as a response to your statement “bets are designed to lose & that`s why bookies rise every year”. At Betfair players set the odds, look it up, we have a guide here on Betdistrict as well.
       
      ps: if you feel the smart choice is to stop betting, as you said, then do it! I offer support within my time & abilities at our e-mail address if you need it.

    • Hi guys. I agree with both of you on several points. My added-value comment would be: we, with our choices and with our patience can make this ‘job’ on a long-term profit. For example: that kind of match, final WTA, two in-shape players, is not for betting, just for watching it and enjoying it.
      Most of the persons who bet are trying to guess the result of this type of matches: because the odds are high, because they/we are subjective. These are not for betting! 🙂 In betting, we must not be subjective.
      Second thought: we need to wait for the occasion, for the mistake. 2-3 days can past without betting. Important is to wait for the right day. It could be 3 days in a row or viceversa. I will give you an example: Astra Genk – 1st leg no yellow cards, scor 2-2. 2nd leg: 4.5 over yellow cards odds 1.66, 1.75, 1.95 (depends on bookie). Around 8-9 were given. To find this mistakes it involves a lot of research, time, work, attention, experience. What I am afraid of is the following: especially in tennis (even though I avoid public bets): bookies contact a player and offer him some money or threaten him/her to play as they want.
      Just think at profit around 50 euros per day. With ~ 21 days of betting = nice pocket money 🙂

    • Hello, great comment. I agree with the way you think and yes, you don`t need to bet every day, multiple matches per day. But I do disagree with some points. There can be different approaches to betting, there isn`t just one way to do it.
       
      I believe any match can be bet on after a thorough analysis. I actually prefer more high profile matches because on those you can get all the information, and you can draw an informed conclusion – as opposed to just analyzing stats and odds. But your example is a good approach as well.
       
      I disagree with the last part of your comment, we are talking about multimillion dollar companies who will win anyway because of the juice in the ‘odds’, casinos and other services. There`s no way in my eyes that they are risking their credibility or their very existence to fix a few matches.

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