Gasquet – Nadal

Richard Gasquet is having the best tournament of his career at the moment, reaching a Grand Slam semifinal for the first time ever. He got past Ferrer and Raonic in the last two rounds (two rough 5 setters), and I did bet against him both times. Against Raonic mostly luck got Richard through, but against David Ferrer he deserved to win, I was wrong to pick the spaniard. On saturday Gasquet have the biggest game of his life against Rafa Nadal.

Richard is playing great tennis at the moment, that’s for sure, but you still have to feel he is not at his absolute best and he took advantages of some circumstances to get here. Tursunov retired when Gasquet had a 1 set lead (2-1), Raonic, as I said, should have won against him and Ferrer really played poor, confirming that the hard court season found him without any rhythm. Richard is still making unforced errors, his serve is attackable, especially his second.

Nadal, of course, is the in form player at the moment, being undefeated on hard courts this season. He lost one set here at the US Open against Kohlschreiber, but easily recovered to win it in 4. Rafa`s performances on hard has been absolutely amazing this season, especially here on the american fast surface that is his least favorite.

Rafa leads the H2H 10-0 and has an obvious advantage over Gasquet, much like over Federer. The frenchman has the best one-handed backhand on the tour, but still he is having big problems hitting it when Nadal sends the ball high, with top-spin. The last 5 meetings (2008 onwards) were straight sets wins for the spaniard, with Gasquet not even reaching a tiebreak. Generally, all of Rafa`s wins were extremely one-sided. Yes, Ferrer also had a great match-up against Richard in the quarters, but his form was poor, he could not capitalize. Today things should be different.

Also, after two tough 5 setters, against Nadal, a player which makes you run from side to side, I really can`t envision Richard being fresh anymore. Motivation got him through against Ferrer, today he`ll have real problems, as he has never been the fittest player on the tour.

Nadal is the big favorite in this one and the 8,5 line is not out of his reach, since a normal scoreline like 6-4 6-3 6-2 would be enough to cover the spread. Even if Richard manages to take a tiebreak, Rafa can still cover, like he did against Kohlschreiber. Class, match-up, physical condition and Rafa`s amazing form should be enough for the spaniard to get a big win here. Expect Richard to give it all in the beginning, but he should fade away in the second part of the match when he will be down on the scoreboard and exhaustion will start to creep in.

Pick Rafa to take this, I`m thinking of something in the region of 7-5 6-3 6-1. Big stakes.

Pick: Nadal (-8,5)
Odds: 1.73 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.57
Event date: 7 September