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This should be a great game in the R16 of the US Open between two fine players with very different styles. Gasquet (9 ATP) is a talented player, versatile and technically gifted, Raonic (11 ATP) is a big server with a power game.
Gasquet was in a real slump before the US Open, the last time he won three consecutive matches was at Roland Garros, a horrible statistic for a top 10 player. The thing with Gasquet is he can`t really win matches playing poor, since his offensive game implies risk taking and he either puts the ball on the line, or he hits it out / in the net. The frenchman has improved a bit here at Flushing Meadows, but he is still far from his best. He defeated Russel and Robert in three sets, before winning against Tursunov, who retired in the 4th set. Gasquet had some trouble against Robert and of course against Tursunov, who won a set and looked to be able to take control of the match at points.
Raonic is in his best form at the moment after reaching his first Masters final in Canada three weeks ago. He loves the american hard courts and he beat players like Youzhny, Gulbis or Del Potro on the surface this summer. Here at US Open Milos had no problem reaching round 16, losing a single set in a tiebreak to Lopez, a quality player.
H2H is 1-0 for Raonic, he won last year at Cincinnati on a very similar surface. I remember the match very clearly, Gasquet was in great form but he had big problems to counter the canadian`s power game. Richard is not a great defender, his return is not top class, and he struggled to win points on Raonic`s serve or neutralize his forehand. Actually, Gasquet`s game is not matching-up well against big servers with huge forehands, so he will have a tough game today.
Big servers are usually not to be trusted in Grand Slams, since it is very hard to keep your serve speed and accuracy at the highest level in a 3 out of 5 match. But this guy Raonic is something else, as he has maybe the best serve on the tour and can play from the baseline, much like Isner. Gasquet is not at his best and against a big-server in fantastic form he has little chances to come up with something. Expect Raonic to out-muscle Richard based on power forehands and unreturnable serves. Break points will come by hard today, but the canadian has more chances to get them due to the match-up and Gasquet making a high number of unforced errors at the moment. We should have a few tiebreaks and Raonic will have the upper hand in them, being a specialist in those situations. All in all, form and match-up should make the difference here.
Pick Milos to win this in 4 tight sets, something like 7-6 6-4 3-6 7-6.
Pick: Raonic
Odds: 1.75 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 2 September
