🏉 Georgia – Fiji

Georgia and Fiji will meet in the playoff for the 7th/8th places at the Autumn Nations Cup, a competition created to replace the traditional Autumn Internationals in Rugby Union due to traveling concerns with COVID-19 this year. The match will take place in Scotland, at Murrayfield.

Georgia finished last in Group A, but actually had quite a successful campaign. Following a 0-40 loss to England, they held their own against Wales (0-18) and especially Ireland (10-23). Georgia got better each game and was able to compete in those last two matches, showing that regular exposure to world class opposition can help them progress and escape the purgatory in which they have been for some time – too good for their regular competition (Romania, Spain and such), but not good enough for the top level of rugby.

For Fiji this will actually be the first game in the competition, as they had to forfeit their three group stage matches due to a COVID outbreak in the squad. The team had to be isolated, but resumed training on Monday and the Flying Fijians will be eager to finally take the pitch in this clash against Georgia – and they will do it with a very strong lineup.

Lineups:

Georgia: 15 Soso Matiashvili, 14 Akaki Tabutsadze, 13 Giorgi Kveseladze, 12 Merab Sharikadze (c), 11 Sandro Todua, 10 Tedo Abzhandadze, 9 Vasil Lobzhanidze, 8 Tornike Jalagonia, 7 Beka Saginadze, 6 Otar Giorgadze, 5 Kote Mikautadze, 4 Lasha Jaiani, 3 Beka Gigashvili, 2 Shalva Mamukashvili, 1 Mikheil Nariashvili.

Fiji: 15 Kini Murimurivalu, 14 Josua Tuisova, 13 Semi Radradra (c), 12 Levani Botia 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 Ben Volavola, 9 Frank Lomani, 8 Albert Tuisue, 7 Mesulame Kunavula, 6 Johnny Dyer, 5 Temo Mayanavanu, 4 Tevita Ratuva, 3 Mesake Doge, 2 Samuel Matavesi, 1 Peni Ravai

Georgia has really played well in the last couple of weeks and that competitive match against Ireland last week was truly impressive, no matter the fact that the Irish were far from their best. The Georgians are slowly gaining status in the world of rugby, which should allow for this trend to continue.

However, one has to ask how much energy does this team have left? Georgia has played three tests in three weeks against three of the best sides in the world, and will now have to take on another powerhouse without any extra week of rest. This has always been a problem for Tier Two sides – they have been able to compete for a game, but didn’t have the depth and fitness to do it consistently. Georgia has now done it three times, but can they do it four times against an explosive Fiji side which is fully rested and raring to go? Georgia has also made just three changes to the lineup which lost against Ireland (in fact, it was a similar lineup for all three games they played), so there won’t be many fresh legs to help.

This has actually been my argument against Georgia last year in the World Cup, when I bet on Fiji to cover the spread because the Georgians were coming in on short rest. Surprisingly or not, Fiji ran away with that game 45-10.

An argument can be made against Fiji, of course, that after being locked down by COVID they could be rusty and unprepared. It makes sense, and we might see some rust from them, particularly given their high risk style of play. However, we saw lately in the NFL (different sport, but not that different) how teams which were locked down by COVID came back very strong and looked very sharp. Fiji resumed training on Monday, that should be enough time to put things in order.

I like Fiji here, they are without a doubt a better team than Georgia and the rest factor should hold a lot of weight. There’s also the fact that Fiji matches up pretty well against the Georgians – their explosive, unstoppable back line will be a handful for a Georgian team which doesn’t excel at all in that department. The two teams played two H2H matches in the last two years, with Fiji winning by 22 and 35 points (although Georgia did get a win over them back in 2016).

Surely Georgia will feel they deserve more than the last place in the competition after their spirited performances. But I’m betting that they will finally break down physically and lose this game by a big margin against a team which can blow you out with speed, explosion and energy even when there are no concerns about rest and fitness. Back Fiji to cover the spread. Prediction: Georgia – Fiji 13 – 34.

Pick: Fiji -13,5
Odds: 2.00 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 5 December