Georgia – Uruguay

Georgia and Uruguay will meet on Sunday in Saitama at the Kumagaya Rugby Ground. The two teams are part of the RWC 2019 Pool D together with Australia, Wales and Fiji.

Georgia was a tiny bit disappointing in the opening match against Wales. The Georgians were never going to challenge for victory in that clash, but they were handed a pretty good beating by the Welsh. The 43-14 score was not a problem, but it was the poor start of Georgia which stood out, as they were already trailing by 21 points after 20 minutes, and the game was already over. Even so, the Georgians remain one of the best and most steady Tier 2 sides in World Rugby. In fact, the last time they lost to a fellow tier 2 side (if we don`t consider Italy and Fiji to be Tier 2) was back in 2017 against Romania. And they played tens of matches since then, including against teams like USA, Samoa or Tonga, all of which they defeated.

Uruguay is coming after one of the biggest shocks in rugby history, and quite probably in sports history as well. The South Americans managed to beat Fiji 30-27 on Wednesday, despite Fiji being a 1.01 and 30 point favorite. While the Fijians were definitely poor, Uruguay played a fantastic game. They were aggressive, took control, and earned their win – it wasn`t handed to them (although luck did play a part, as they were outscored 5 tries to 3, but Fiji simply couldn`t by a conversion). The magnificent result came to confirm Uruguay’s progress over the last few years. In the last 12 months Uruguay claimed wins over the likes of Romania and USA (albeit both teams were missing some players), their biggest wins in the last decades before the shock against Fiji.

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Team news & lineups:

Georgia will make 12 changes in the starting lineup, which comes as a big surprise considering the importance of this match. Uruguay on the other hand will only make two changes despite facing a short 4 day turnaround. Both decisions of the coaches come as a surprise.

Georgia: 1. Guram Gogichashvili. 2. Jaba Bregvadze (c), 3. Levan Chilachava, 4. Lasha Lomidze, 5. Konstantine Mikautadze, 6. Shalva Sutiashvili, 7. Beka Saginadze, 8. Otari Giorgadze, 9. Gela Aprasidze, 10. Tedo Abzhandadze, 11. Alexander Todua, 12. Lasha Malaguradze, 13. Giorgi Kveseladze, 14. Zura Dzneladze, 15. Lasha Khmaladze

Uruguay: 1. Mateo Sanguinetti, 2. German Kessler, 3. Juan Pedro Rombys, 4. Ignacio Dotti, 5. Manuel Leindekar, 6. Juan Manuel Gaminara (c), 7. Santiago Civetta, 8. Alejandro Nieto, 9. Santiago Arata, 10. Felipe Berchesi, 11. Rodrigo Silva, 12. Andres Vilaseca, 13. Juan Manuel Cat, 14. Nicolas Freitas, 15. Gaston Mieres

Although Uruguay made small steps in the right direction over the last few years, they were still regarded as one of the weakest teams in this World Cup, and nobody imagined they would even be able to compete with Fiji – not to mention winning the game. It`s probably fair to say this was the second biggest upset in Rugby World Cup history, behind Japan’s win over South Africa in 2015.

However, despite the big win (or maybe even because of it), Uruguay will have a very difficult time against Georgia.

One thing to take into account is the hangover Uruguay will feel after their huge win, but more importantly is the fact that they only had 4 days of rest, two less than Georgia. Uruguay put in a colossal effort against Fiji and they do not have the depth to deal with such a short turnaround.

Uruguay will ride the wave of confidence and they will come in with great morale, but physically they might well be unrecognizable in this clash against Georgia, especially since they decided to field an almost unchanged lineup.

The Georgians are still a class above their opponents despite Uruguay’s big win, and they should capitalize on the fatigue of the South Americans. Although Georgia making 12 changes to the starting lineup is a bit strange and has the potential to hurt them.

Look for Georgia’s pack, one of the best in the world, to make this a physical game, which will suck away the stamina from Uruguay even faster than normal. Georgia would have bettered Uruguay big time in the scrum anyway, but in these circumstances it could turn into utter domination, and that would provide Georgia with penalties to work with.

The handicap line seems extremely accessible for Georgia, surely influenced a lot by Uruguay’s miracle win on Wednesday. But one win doesn`t mean that Uruguay suddenly and magically transformed into a superior team. It`s just that kind of crazy result which sometimes happens in sports, and history shows that the team which sprung the big upset usually can`t sustain the same level for another game. Before the World Cup we would probably be talking about a 22-25 point handicap here.

Georgia will be focused to also claim a bonus point from this match by scoring 4 tries, and they just might do it. It`s actually vital for Georgia to win the bonus point in the race for the 3rd place (which assures qualification for the next world cup), and they will also be eager to deny Uruguay one. So there`s big motivation for Georgia not only to win, but to win in a clear manner.

My tip will be Georgia to cover the -15,5 handicap. This would be a clear cut 10 unit bet for me here, but there`s a bit of worry with Georgia making so many changes to the starting lineup. On the bright side, they will be rested, and they have a magnificent bench to come in late and subdue a tired Uruguay.

I will take the risk and back the spread with 10 units. Prediction: Georgia – Uruguay 32 – 10.

Pick: Georgia -15,5
Odds: 1.90 @ Unibet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9
Event date: 29 September