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Local favorite Gerald Melzer and Santiago Giraldo will square off in what seems to be an evenly matched clash in the Kitzbuhel second round, on clay.
Gerald Melzer had an average year for his standards, but the Austrian is playing his best tennis of the year right now. Melzer reached the semifinal at Perugia and the final last week at Cortina in his last two tournaments, both at challenger level. What’s more, he managed to defeat Carlos Berlocq 6-4 5-7 6-3 in a tight first round clash here in Kitzbuhel, so he will definitely be coming into this match with confidence.
Santiago Giraldo had to play qualifiers this week at Kitzbuhel, having fallen more than 30 positions in the ATP rankings since the start of the year due to having a poor season. Nevertheless, Giraldo managed to pass qualifications without losing a set and claimed an impressive win in the first round against Haase. Giraldo won 7-6 4-6 6-4 against a solid player in good form, and also a player who loves the tournament (Haase won his only two career titles here in Kitzbuhel).
Bet on Melzer vs. Giraldo and claim your 100% (100 Euro) freebet at Ohmbet now!The H2H stands at 0-0, the two players having never met before on tour. Melzer and Giraldo each love clay in equal measure, so the surface doesn`t do anybody a favor or disservice.
Melzer`s results have been solid lately, but fact is he benefited a lot from the luck of the draw. Last week in Cortina Melzer didn`t face a single Top 250 opponent until the final, where he lost 1-6 0-6 to Carballes Baena. Even his win on Tuesday here in Kitzbuhel against Berlocq wasn`t that impressive considering the very poor form of the Argentinean.
Melzer has won just three times as an underdog in his last 30 matches, which says a lot about what competition he faced, and who his wins came against – especially in his two big performances in July (semifinals in Perugia and final at Cortina). He was also the favorite in both of his losses in those tournaments (Carballes Baena, Munoz De La Nava).
The Austrian is the favorite here against Giraldo, but there`s a big questionmark if he should be – even though most bettors seem to be on his side, as odds on Melzer to win are dropping.
Fact is that Melzer’s form isn`t actually that great considering who he won against. Sure, every win gives you confidence, but Giraldo will be a different level of opposition considering the way he played this week. The Colombian did well to pass the qualifiers without losing a set and he played some great tennis in his first round win against Haase. He might be on track to regain his Top 50 Atp form.
A big (and possibly deciding) argument that works against Melzer here is the fact that he played a ton of tennis lately. This will be the 7th match in 9 days for the Austrian, and the fact that he had to play a marathon against a defensive baseliner like Berlocq yesterday will not help with his fitness. He already looked fatigued last weekend in the Cortina final against Carballes Baena, recharged his batteries for the Berlocq match, but there`s a possibility that not much is left for yet another match coming the next day.
I reckon Giraldo is the real favorite here and he should take advantage of Melzer being slightly overrated, as well as capitalizing on Melzer’s potential fatigue. I trust my analysis here, so my tip is Giraldo to win. Prediction: Gerald Melzer – Santiago Giraldo 5-7 6-4 3-6.
Pick: Giraldo
Odds: 2.08 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.64
Event date: 2 August
