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Here it is, the moment both feared and anticipated by punters and football fans has arrived: the World Cup final fill see it`s last act today, with Germany taking on Argentina in the final. For more information aside from the analysis below, you can check my Knockout Round analysis, where I was lucky to accurately predict a Germany – Argentina final.
Germany has been simply unbelievable in the semifinal against Brazil, excellent football by the Panzers and they are favored by the odds for good reason today. Having tipped Germany to win the World Cup, I was not surprised that the Mannschaft routed an unimpressive Brazil side, but of course I could have never anticipated how good the Germans were. On the other hand, we must not get carried away here. I still think Germany is the best and most cohesive side in this World Cup, but the semifinal was an accident, Brazil was dreadful and Germany had its own struggles during the tournament. It will be a challenge for them to dispatch a surprisingly good Argentinian defense, as they had problems in this tournament when the opponent played organized defense (USA, Algeria, France).
Argentina did not particularly impress in this World Cup, but they deserved to reach the final and did just enough to make that happen. Messi got them out of the group stages with 3 wins, then the Pumas played very good defense to dispatch Switzerland (1-0 A.E.T), Belgium (1-0) and Netherlands (0-0, won at penalties). Their offensive display however was poor and it`s worrying for Argentina that Higuain, Aguero and Lavezzi seem totally out of form. Di Maria did not play consistently well himself, and Messi can not do it by himself. The Pumas need to keep up the good defensive play and produce a better offensive performance in order to have a fighting chance against this excellent Germany team.
Team news & lineups
Germany will miss Mustafi, while Argentina has Di Maria doubtful but he should start the game nevertheless.
Germany: Neuer – Lahm, Hummels, Boateng, Höwedes – Khedira, Schweinsteiger – Kroos – Özil, Müller – Klose.
Argentina: Romero – Zabaleta, F Fernández, Garay, Rojo – E Perez, Mascherano – Palacio, Messi, Lavezzi – Higuaín.
Picking Germany to win the World Cup just because they dismantled Brazil would be a big mistake, as that was a match that happens once in a century and of course no game is similar to other. Nevertheless, I still thing the Panzers will have just enough to dispatch Argentina. Clearly the Germans have played better football so far, they seem the better organized side and they are much more effective and clinical than the Argentinians – the last two arguments being absolutely key factors in modern football. Argentina is not even individually better, aside from the brilliance of Messi of course. An interesting thing is that Germany improved A LOT since Joachim Low sent Lahm at right back and deputised Klose instead of Gotze (a betdistrict reader was spot on to notice this before the semifinal) – since this lineup has been fielded, Germany has been much better, so if Low keeps the starting 11 I can’t see shaky performances like the one against Algeria repeating, especially in the final. I am satisfied that the odds have not dropped too much for Germany (I was expecting a massive drop) so my I will stick with my pre-tournament prediction and I will tip will be Germany to win the World Cup. The best team should lift the trophy. Prediction: Germany – Argentina 1-1 (2-1 A.E.T).
Pick: Germany to win the World Cup
Odds: 1.67 @ Bet365
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.03
Event date: 13 July
