Germany – Italy

The third quarterfinal of Euro 2016 will feature Germany and Italy, with the winner set to play in the semifinals against either France or Iceland.

There were questions about Germany coming into the tournament, as they played poorly in friendlies and even the qualifying campaign wasn`t that great, with defeats to Ireland and Poland – even though Germany did win the preliminary group. Nevertheless, Germany showed its strength so far in the Euros, posting 3 wins and 1 draw, keeping clean sheets in all matches. They played great in the 3-0 Round 16 win over Slovakia.

Italy slowly became a favorite to win it all in the eyes of many experts, which is not outrageous considering that the Italians already defeated two of the top European sides and did it in style – 2-0 against both Belgium (group stage) and Spain (Round 16). Even if Italy does not have the quality it once had and even though they were rather poor in the group after beating Belgium, this team seems able to perform in the big moments.

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Team news & lineups:

Hector is questionable for Germany, but he should play. Italy has some serious problems in midfield, as Motta is out, while Candreva and De Rossi are questionable – it would not be a surprise if neither of these three will be in the starting lineup.

Germany: Neuer – Kimmich, Boateng, Hummels, Hector – Schweinsteiger, Kroos – Muller, Ozil, Draxler – Gomez

Italy: Buffon – Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini – Florenzi, Sturaro, Giaccherini, Parolo, De Sciglio – Eder, Pelle

An evenly matched clash between two teams that received together a single goal in 8 matches combined, with Italy being one of them, this screams under 2,5 goals. However, odds are too low to warrant the risk.

I think the best bet here is a draw at half time, probably 0-0. Obviously both teams will be looking to maintain their record of clean sheets and nobody will want to go down early. Italy has problems with injuries in the midfield area and this could eventually prove decisive against an opponent like Germany, but the Italians surely have the strength to hold their own for at least 45 minutes.

My tip is a draw at half time. Prediction: Germany – Italy 0-0 (1-0 extra time).

Pick: Half time draw
Odds: 1.95 @ Bet365
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.65
Event date: 2 July