Germany – Mexico

Germany and Mexico will square off in the second semifinal at the FIFA Confederations Cup in Russia, with the winner set to meet Chile in the Grand final on Sunday.

Germany virtually brought its “B team” to this Confederations Cup, as only 2 players in their ranks have more than 20 caps to their name (Draxler, Hector). Nevertheless, the Germans played some very good football and won their group ahead of Chile with 2 wins and 1 draw. The offense has been great for the Germans, as they average 2.33 goals per game, but on the other hand they did show defensive naiveties and conceded at least a goal in every game.

Mexico also finished with 7 points in a group with Portugal, Russia and New Zealand. The South Americans drew 2-2 with Portugal and claimed 2-1 wins against Russia and New Zealand – so, like Germany, they played entertaining, offensive minded football. The Mexicans brought their best squad and all their top stars to this competition, though Guardado and Moreno are out of the semifinals.

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Team news & lineups:

Germany doesn`t miss anybody ahead of this game, and selecting the starting lineup will pose Joachim Low with a pleasant challenge. As for Mexico, they will miss Guardado and Salcedo, but their are also questionmarks over the fitness of Chicharito, Reyes and Moreno. Chicharito is expected to start though, or at the very least enter the game in the second half.

Germany: Ter Stegen – Ginter, Mustafi, Rudiger – Kimmich, Rudy, Can, Hector – Goretzka, Werner, Draxler

Mexico: Ochoa – Moreno, Araujo, Alanis – Damm, Santos, Reyes, Aquino – Fabian – Jimenez, Chicharito (Vela)

Both teams have played entertaining football in this competition, scoring an average of 2+ goals per game, but also conceding in every match they played (4 total goals allowed by each team to be exact). Stats and common sense seem to suggest that each team will score here, and the match should see a fair number of goals.

Semifinals of a tournament can be cagier than group stage matches, so that must be taken into account, especially as Mexico are underachievers once they get out of the group stages of a competition. But all in all this is more or less a friendly event, so there`s no real reason for Germany and Mexico to chicken out and alter the style of play which brought them success so far.

Germany has no pressure with this young, experimental team, can play freely, and their fast paced offense should definitely find a way to score against a team which hasn`t kept a clean sheet so far.

On the other hand, Germany`s defense is not up to par with its offense. It`s a young defensive setup which proved naive at many times during the group stage, so a strong, motivated Mexico side should also create a number of serious opportunities. Mexico should be able to do what Australia did (twice), or Cameroon and Chile (once) – that is to score against Germany.

Betting on goals definitely makes sense here, both looking at the stats, and also having watched the two teams play. My tip will be both teams to score. Prediction: Germany – Mexico 2-1.

Pick: Both to score
Odds: 1.71 @ 10Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.68
Event date: 29 June