Germany – Mexico

Reigning Champions Germany will begin their title defense against Mexico, the two teams being drawn in Group F together with Sweden and South Korea.

Germany has hardly put a foot wrong since a defeat to France in the Euro 2016 semifinals, going on a 22 match unbeaten run which featured no less than 16 wins. Germany won all its 10 games in the qualifying group for the World Cup with a goal difference of 43 – 4 (!!), although it`s true that the group was rather easy with Czech Republic, Norway and Northern Ireland as the main opponents. The only real reason for worry is that Germany didn`t impress in the pre – World Cup friendlies. Their undefeated run ended in March against Brazil, while in the last couple of weeks they lost to Austria and barely defeated Saudi Arabia.

Mexico also had an easy qualifying campaign, winning the Central American group without any problems against teams like Costa Rica, USA, Panama or Honduras. The Mexicans played three warm up matches in the weeks before the World Cup, drawing 0-0 with Wales, beating Scotland 1-0 and losing 0-2 against Denmark.

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Team news & lineups:

Ozil is doubtful for Germany and smart money would probably be on him not starting.

Germany: Neuer – Kimmich, Hummels, Boateng, Hector – Khedira, Kroos – Muller, Draxler, Reus – Werner

Mexico: Ochoa – Salcedo, Ayala, Moreno, Gallardo – Guardado, Herrera, Santos, Lozano – Vela, Jimenez

This is a good Mexico team, apparently no better or worse than the teams they had in the previous World Cups. They should compete for qualification in this group, but Germany might be a step too high in terms of quality.

The Germans have been poor in the pre – World Cup friendlies and because of this they might be priced just a tad higher at 1.50 than they would normally be. But friendlies have little to no relevance, as Germany was just testing things. They are a well oiled machine with a ton of chemistry under Joachim Low, and should revert to their usual selves in the World Cup.

This good chemistry Germany has should also help with getting them on track quickly. First matches can be dangerous, as we saw with France or Argentina, but Germany having such good cohesion should minimize the impact of the debut.

A solid, no – nonsense Germany win should be on the cards here. Mexico will likely create problems, but should fall short in the end. Simple bet for me here, as I`m backing a straight German victory. Odds are dropping. Prediction: Germany – Mexico 2-1.

Pick: Germany
Odds: 1.50 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4
Event date: 17 June