Germany – Ukraine

Reigning World champions Germany will kick off their Euro 2016 campaign against Ukraine, aiming to complete the highly coveted World Cup – Euro double in consecutive tournaments.

Germany has found itself dropped from the main favorite to win the tournament, to being the second or even third favorite and for good reason. The Panzers are having problems lately, both with the level of play and with injuries. Germany won the Euro 2016 qualifying group but did not impress, losing to Poland or Ireland and scraping a number of close games. Recent friendlies showed a clueless Germany side, as they lost to England, Slovakia or France. What`s more, they are struggling with team selection, which I will cover in the team news & lineups section below.

Ukraine finished third behind Spain and Slovakia in the qualifying group. They had a solid qualifying campaign, but they were unable to score goals against the top sides and that was their problem – just 1 point and no goals scored in 4 matches against Slovakia and Spain. On the bright side, they conceded only 3 goals in those 4 matches, as the defense worked very well in the qualifiers. Strangely, Ukraine looked totally different in the Euro 2016 tests, posting a 7-4 goal difference in two friendlies against Romania and Albania.

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Team news & lineups:

Germany will miss Hummels, while Rudiger, Boateng and Schweinsteiger are questionable. Additionally, the Panzers have to deal with the retirements of Mertesacker and Lahm, while Gundogan and Reus have been ruled out from the tournament due to injuries. What a disappointment for these two Dortmund players, who missed the 2014 World Cup for the same reason. Meanwhile, Ukraine is fully healthy and can field the best lineup in this match.

Germany: Neuer – Can, Howedes, Mustafi, Hector – Khedira, Kroos – Muller, Ozil, Draxler – Gomez

Ukraine: Pyatov – Fedetsky, Khacheridi, Rakytskiy, Shevchuk – Garmash, Stepanenko – Yarmolenko, Sydorchuk, Konoplyanka – Zozulya

While this Ukraine team is generally defensive minded, they have played all out attacking football in the pre – Euro 2016 friendlies and at least some of that goal scoring form should translate into the Euros. After all, their (arguably) two best players (Yarmolenko and Konoplyanka) are up front. As for Germany, we all know they are banging in the goals on a regular basis (despite lacking a world class striker), but they also have big problems at the back lately. Die Mannschafft’s results in 2016: 2-3, 4-1, 1-3 and 2-0.

Additionally, Germany misses Hummels and Boateng is highly doubtful, while also having to deal with the retirements of Mertesacker and Lahm. That`s 4 key defenders potentially being out (including the main center back pairing) and you can add the defensive minded Gundogan and Schweinsteiger as important losses in the defensive area. Germany will probably have to play with Sami Khedira in that area, a guy who barely featured for Juventus in the last couple of months and struggled with injuries. Ukraine will try (and should be able to) capitalize on these issues, especially as Germany is in shaky form.

It`s also worth noting that Ukraine has the most unreliable and error – prone keeper in the entire Euro 2016 tournament, Pyatov, whose entire career was facilitated by the “minimum number of domestic players” rule in the Ukrainean league. It`s crazy how this guy stays as the number 1 choice in the Ukrainean team. Of course, he can have a big game at anytime, he`s that type of keeper, but he can also gift the opponents 3 goals out of nothing, as he did in the recent friendly against Romania.

I think both teams will score here, but I will bet on over 2,5 goals just in case Germany finds its groove and cruises to a big win. Odds are more or less the same for these two bets on goals, so my tip is the over 2,5. Prediction: Germany – Ukraine 2-1.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.05 @ Betsafe
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.40
Event date: 12 June