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Gazelec Ajaccio and Olympique Marseille will square off in a Ligue 1 clash counting for the 29th round, a match that was previously postponed.
GFCO Ajaccio is currently sitting on the 18th place in Ligue 1, but the hosts are 6 points clear of relegation, so they are not in panic mode for now. The main reason for which the hosts are in a relatively safe spot was their ability to snatch draws, as they have 11 such results in 28 matches. Ajaccio hasn`t won a game in Ligue 1 since December, but they claimed 5 draws in the 9 matches played since then.
If draws helped Ajaccio to stay clear of relegation so far, the same draws have destroyed Marseille’s season. Olympique is on a shameful 13th place right now, posting no less than 13 draws in 28 matches – the most in the league. Marseille’s last 3 games in Ligue 1 finished 1-1, but between those matches the visitors also claimed a 1-0 win over Granville in the Cup. Obviously, OM does not have much left to fight for in the league.
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Team news & lineups:
Brechet and Puyol are unavailable for the hosts, while Youga and Coeff are doubtful. Marseille won’t have Diaby and Diarra in the lineup. They might also miss Dja Djedje, Fletcher and Ocampos.
GFCO Ajaccio: Maury – Coeff, Filippi, Magnane, Sylla – Ducourtioux, Poggi – Larby, Djokovic, Boutaib – Zoua
Olympique Marseille: Mandanda – Manquillo, N’Koulou, Rolando, Mendy – Isla, Romao – Nkoudou, Cabella, Thauvin – Batshuayi
Everything about this match suggests that a draw is the most likely result. Over 39% of Ajaccio’s games finished with a draw, while 46,5% of Marseille’s matches finished with a tied results. With these statistics, surely odds well over 3.00 for a draw have value.
Leaving the statistics aside, common sense also inclines towards a draw. Marseille is obviously the better team here, but they struggled all season and were particularly unable to snatch wins against organized defensive teams like Gazelec Ajaccio. With the hosts 6 points clear of relegation, a draw would be the perfect result for them and they will surely play for that. They know how do do it and Marseille does not know how to win matches.
I expect a draw here. Marseille might snatch a win though, so my tip will be a draw on the Marseille no win market – meaning the bet will be void in case the visitors win. GFC Ajaccio certainly does not seem to likely to claim victory. Great odds at Bwin for this prediction. Prediction: Gazelec Ajaccio – Olympique Marseille 1-1.
Pick: Draw – Marseille win no bet
Odds: 1.85 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.80
Event date: 9 March
