Ghana – Zambia

This is the 6th and final round in group D of the African qualifiers for World Cup 2014. Ghana leads the group by one point and the mathematics are simple here: If Zambia wins, Zambia advances, If Ghana gets at least a draw, Ghana advances. Zambia managed to win the home game 1-0 in a tense affair just three months ago – the only points Ghana have conceded in these qualifications so far.

The hosts are really fired up for this game, and they will field the best team in a long time. Their best palyers, like Andre Ayew, Kevin Prince Boateng and Michael Essien have decided to take part in this game after failing to compete for the National Team in a long time. The visitors are a good team, but are on a downtrend since winning the African Cup of nations. They did not past the group stage in the 2013 ACN and in the qualies they made two draws with Sudan and Lesotho, that tells us they are not in the best form. Zambian players are confident ahead of this game and they think they can win, but their enthusiasm did not sit well with Ghana`s veterans, who said they are talking too much and they will be taught a lesson in Kumasi.

Ghana is clearly the better team here, they will have a lot of top-class players in the first eleven, players that can decide the game on their own. When their stars are present, Ghana are one of the better teams in the world, they proved it by almost reaching the semifinals in the 2010 World Cup. Essien might not feature because his father passed away, but he is expected to be on the pitch. Home court advantage will also be an important difference maker. In Africa, playing at home is an immense advantage, and the combination between quality and competing on your own turf advantage rarely fails.

Even if Ghana only needs 1 point, they are so motivated for this game that it is hard to believe they will settle in defending a draw. It`s the game of the year for both teams. More so, Zambia will have to attack so they will leave spaces at the back for the hosts to speculate.

Expect sheer quality and home court advantage to guide Ghana to a solid win, I`m thinking 2-0. This team is way above Zambia`s level when at full strength.

Pick: Ghana
Odds: 1.53 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.24
Event date: 6 September