Gibraltar – Greece

Gibraltar hosts Greece in Group H of the World Cup 2018 qualifying tournament, a difficult group which also features Belgium and Bosnia.

Gibraltar will kick off their 2nd ever qualifying campaign after failing to claim a single point in the last one – scoring just twice in 10 matches and losing with massive scores against teams like Poland, Germany or Scotland. They allowed an average of 5.6 goals per game. Premises are not much better this time around, with Gibraltar coming after two consecutive 0-5 losses in friendlies against Latvia and Portugal.

Greece’s Euro 2016 qualifying campaign has been well documented to be a historic disaster, with the Greeks finishing last in a very easy group, winning just one match and losing twice to Faroe. However, changes have been made, Michael Skibbe took over as manager last year and Greece seems to be in good shape now. They defeated Netherlands in Eindhoven last week in a friendly, coming back from 0-1 down to win 2-1.

Football in Gibraltar is getting better and we could see the amazing results their club teams got in Europe this season – Lincoln Red Imps beating Celtic, or FC Europa barely losing 0-2 aggregate against AIK. Those results show that football in Gibraltar is on the way up, but right now that only seems valid at club level. The National team is getting blown out game after game, allowing 4 or 5 goals even to teams like Georgia or Latvia.

We know Greece to be a defensive minded team which doesn`t usually go for many goals. However, with a few new players and under new manager Skibbe, they are playing more open football. Greece played 5 matches in 2016, scoring 2 goals in 4 of them.

My main instinct was to bet on the under in this match, as I was still under the impact of the good performances in Europe by Gibraltar clubs. However, after the analysis I can`t support that thought any longer – and I will actually go with a quite opposite bet. Gibraltar’s results speak for themselves, they allowed 3 or more goals in every single game of the Euro qualifying campaign (vs Georgia at home was the only time they allowed under 4) and the trend continued in recent friendlies.

A rejuvenated Greece, playing more offensive football under Michael Skibbe, should be capable of putting at least 4 goals past Gibraltar themselves – probably more. My tip is Greece to cover the 3,25 goal asian handicap. Prediction: Gibraltar – Greece 0-5.

Pick: Greece (-3,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.73 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.84
Event date: 6 September