Gibraltar – Latvia

Gibraltar Victoria Stadium

Gibraltar will play against Latvia at the Victoria Stadium and the hosts will try to avoid defeat for the second match in a row. It would be just the second time they would achieve that in their short history.

Gibraltar is on the back of a 0-0 home draw against Liechtenstein, a respectable result. The hosts were on an 11 match losing streak, so the draw came as a timely breath of fresh air. Gibraltar was horrible in the qualifications for Euro 2016, losing all 10 games and posting a 2-56 goal difference. Sure, the fact that they had a very difficult group (Germany, Poland, Scotland, Ireland, Georgia) did not help.

I rarely saw such a defensive, helpless performance like the one Latvia put up a few days ago in a 0-0 draw with Slovakia. The result was obviously impressive for Latvia, especially as it came on the road. They did a pretty good job of stopping Slovakia, but did not create absolutely anything up front. Latvia defended with 11 men for the whole 90 minutes, but every time they had the ball, they did absolutely nothing but hopelessly kick it back to the Slovaks. Excessive time wasting came to round up a very, very ugly match.

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Team news: Gibraltar misses three key players, the only ones that play abroad: Wiseman (Scunthorpe), Gosling (Newport) and Artell (Bala Town). Latvia will probably rest most of the players that started against Slovakia. They will surely rotate, the only question is how much.

Latvia looked horrible up front last week and I don`t think they will score too many goals today. Sure, comparing Slovakia to Gibraltar would be insane, but Latvia may actually have serious problems building positional attacks against an inferior opponent – it is not their style of play and frankly I don`t think they know how to do it.

Latvia scored just 6 goals in the qualifications for Euro 2016. They didn`t win any of their group games and have not tasted victory in the previous 13 matches! 9 of those 13 matches ended with under 2,5 goals.

Gibraltar is slowly improving and will defend for their lives, hoping to claim a second consecutive draw. I don`t think they will, but I can see them keeping the score respectable. Latvia doesn`t look capable of covering a 2 or 3 goal handicap, especially with some substitutes expected to come into the lineup. My tip is under 2,5 goals and I will stake medium stakes on this bet. Prediction: Gibraltar – Latvia 0-2.

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.05 @ Bwin
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 6.30
Event date: 29 March

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

2 comments

  1. The idea that Latvia is going to score very few goals against an amateur side, because they struggled to score against Slovakia doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

    Latvia employs a defensive system against superior teams. They only played with one striker up front during the last qualification cycle. Their objective was to play close, tight games and park the bus.

    It might be counter-intuitive, but most of the talent on the Latvian team is in the forward ranks (players based in Bundesliga, Championship, Belgium, Czech Republic, etc.). They will not use a defensive system against Gibraltar. All those impressions from earlier games don’t have a lot of value.

    I don’t think there’s any value here on the Under bet.

    • Sure, that is a fair point. My intention was not to compare the match against Slovakia with the match against Gibraltar in any way.
       
      My point was to highlight Latvia’s ineptitude up front. Many teams park the bus, but for me very few teams are as incapable up front as Latvia. Also, like you yourself said, they are not used to playing a positional attacking game.
       
      3 of the 4 strikers you mentioned scored a combined 1 goal in 70 caps for Latvia and 2 of them are not in the squad today. Sure, this is also because Sabala (Pribram) usually plays as a lone striker and Latvia parks the bus against most sides.
       
      Don`t forget it`s only a friendly, so in my eyes that increases the chances for a low scoring clash (motivation, rotation and so on). I believe the under is more likely than the over, guess we will find out soon enough. Best of luck!

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