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Second round match in Wimbledon between Gilles Simon and Robin Haase, the odds on the frenchman are going down big-time, but an analysis is needed to see if the price movement is well founded.
Simon struggled a lot in the beginning of this season, losing a lot of matches and dropping big-time in the rankings, to the extent that he`s not seeded in this tournament. He started to regain his rhythm on clay however, and posted some good results including a 5 setter against Raonic in the 3rd round of Roland Garros, an excellent match, despite Gilles losing in the end. Simon is not a natural grass court player but he can play good tennis on the surface if he`s in form. Didn`t look too sharp so far, lost big to Benneteau in the Eastbourne 2nd round, defeated Kravchuk in 3 sets in the Wimbledon 2nd round.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Haase has a good game for grass, powerful serve, deep, strong groundstrokes, especially on the forehand side. He played excellent tennis in Hale despite only reaching the 2nd round: defeated Gasquet in two, lost 6-7 4-6 to eventual finalist Falla. He put on another good display in the first round here at Wimbledon, routing the 31st seed, Vasek Pospisil, in 4 sets. Overall Haase had a relatively poor season, but he’s getting sharper on the green.
The H2H is tied at 1-1, both meetings took place on hard, Simon won the last one in 2013. One thing relevant about the matchup analysis is that Simon’s solid return might hurt Haase a little bit on his service games, which are crucial to him.
Simon should not be trusted so much here, and the fact that the odds are dropping on him is not realistic. Haase played better tennis than Gilles on grass this season and I see no reason for the trend to suddenly get reversed, after all the quality difference is not so big, even if Simon is the better player. The frenchman does have a good return, but it does not work at full capacity in his current form and on grass it will be harder for him to use it. All in all, Haase has the weapons and the form to make this a close game, and it should go down to the wire. Simon to win might end up being a winning bet in the end but it will be tough, and my tip is Haase to cover the 3,5 game handicap. Prediction: Gilles Simon – Robin Haase 7-6 3-6 6-3 4-6 7-5.
Pick: Haase (+3,5 game handicap)
Odds: 2.01 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.07
Event date: 25 June
