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Both players are in front of one of the biggest performances of their careers, as they square off in Shanghai today with a place in the final up for grabs.
After a poor first half of the season, Simon is on a roll right now – the Frenchman reached the 4th round at the US Open (where he arguably deserved to win vs. Cilic) and he played a semifinal last week in Beijing, losing to Raonic. Here in Shanghai he lost the first set in the first round against Granollers but he was absolutely breathtaking after that, including winning over Stan Wawrinka and most notably against a red hot Berdych in a three setter on Friday. Gilles is playing excellent smart-aggressive tennis with very few errors and is in perfect physical shape right now.
Lopez had a truly amazing year, some excellent tennis from him, serving bombs and finishing points off with big forehands or sharp volley`s. This will be his second Masters semifinal in just a couple of months. Lopez is on the back of a 3 set win over Youzhny where he played well but I have to say looked a bit erratic at times and lost his serve 4 times (allowed 10 break points) which is very, very poor against a bad returner like Youzhny. Among Feliciano`s victims this week was also Nadal, great win, but Rafa was not at his best.
The H2H is 2-1 for Lopez and Feliciano won the last two meetings (both in 2013), but I have to say this H2H is very misleading. Both of Lopez`s wins came on grass, his best surface and Simon`s worst (by far). Simon easily won the only hard court meeting back in 2008 and the matchup analysis will say that Lopez`s serve-forehand style is falling right into Simon`s baseline game and movement.
One of the smartest players on tour, Simon should be able to break down Lopez`s rather one-dimensional game. Simon`s great return, passing shots and defensive baseline play are excellent arguments for him to get the best of Feliciano. Expect Gilles to stay in most of the points and turn defense into offense or force errors from Lopez. The Frenchman has played the better tennis this week, he hit the cleaner shots and he has a clear matchup advantage as far as I`m concerned, so this is a quite simple analysis and bet. My tip is Simon to win. Prediction: Gilles Simon – Feliciano Lopez 7-5 6-7 6-3.
Pick: Simon
Odds: 1.70 @ Betsson
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.3
Event date: 11 October
