Warriors – Cavaliers

Golden State Warriors will try to wrap up the NBA finals tonight at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers, as the Warriors are leading 3-1 after winning Game 4 on the road. However, Golden State will have to do without Draymond Green in this Game 5, who has been suspended after an altercation with Lebron James and the point spread is shifting in Cavs’ favor for this reason, as they are now only 5,5 point underdogs.

The Warriors have been utterly dominant in this series. They won Games 1 and 2 at home with a combined margin of almost 50 points, prompting some expertes to talk about a potential sweep. Cavs showed character to bounce back and win Game 3 at home by 30 points, but the Warriors eventually won Game 4 rather comfortably – making it seem that they just took Game 3 off, as they simply looked disconnected in that loss. Steph Curry also finally stepped up in the last match, scoring 38 points after looking rather pedestrian in the first three matches.

The Cavs had renewed hope after that Game 3 win, but it proved to be just a flash in the pan. They were again outmatched and outplayed in Game 4, on their own home court – their 1st loss at home in the playoffs. Irving and Lebron failed to get the other guys involved and it seemed to be a mismatch even when Cavaliers were up in the first half. Tyron Lue also deserves much of the blame, as he played Irving and Lebron for almost the entire game and they looked exhausted in the 4th quarter.

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After making an analysis of the situation, I believe Green’s absence will not hurt Golden State too much here and I think it`s actually better for us, as we get much better odds for the Warriors. Indeed, Green is the glue to this team and he played solid basketbal on defense the entire series, but fact is that Golden State is dominating this because of their depth and because of the bench play. They blew out Cavs at home even when Curry and Thompson did not show up

As I have been saying for the entire series, the main reason for which I don`t give Cavs a chance is the matchup. Styles makes fights and Golden State is simply a nightmare matchup for them, they do not have the weapons and a proper game plan to beat this team. They can`t beat them by shooting threes, they can`t beating by playing Irving and Lebron isolation. They can only beat them if they defend extremely aggressive and Golden State has a horrible shooting night. And I don`t think they can beat them in Oakland.

The fact that Golden State Warriors won 5 of the 6 meetings this season against Cleveland is not a coincidence. They won 4 of those games by 10+ points and 2 of them by 30+ points.

Leaving the matchup aside, there`s also the fact that Cleveland looked absolutely exhausted at the end of Game 4. Lue playing Irving and Lebron so many minutes backfired and they simply did not have anything left in the tank, almost giving up in the 4th quarter. If it was a 5th quarter in that game, Warriors would have probably won it by 20.

I just don`t think that Cavs can get over the matchup disadvantage and their own exhaustion to challenge for the win in this Game 5, they seemed well beaten when Game 4 ended on Friday night. I expect Golden State to get over Green’s absence with the help of home court advantage and end this today. Expect Curry to have a big night again after finally getting his rhythm in the last game and maybe Thompson starts making his threes as well. My tip is Golden State Warriors to win and cover the 5 point spread. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Cleveland Cavaliers 115 – 100.

Pick: Warriors -5
Odds: 1.83 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.47
Event date: 14 June