Warriors – Cavaliers

Golden State Warriors will host Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 7 of the NBA finals, with the Championship on the line after Cleveland pulled off a remarkable comeback from 1-3 down.

The Warriors were utterly dominant in the first 4 games of the finals, taking a 3-1 lead and dominating Cleveland particularly in the matchup department. However, Warriors had Draymond Green suspended for Game 5 and that seemed to have an impact as they could not close the deal at home, looking horrible on defense and being unable to hit open shots on offense in the second half. They brought that same low energy in Game 6 in Cleveland, losing the first quarter 31-11. Steph Curry got a bit hot and Warriors started playing better, cutting the lead to 7 in the 4th quarter, but in the end the early deficit was just too much to overcome.

Cleveland attempts to become the first team in NBA history to win the Finals after going down 1-3. They took full advantage of Green’s absence and of the fact that Warriors couldn`t hit shots in Game 5 and held on to win Game 6 at home. Lebron James has been absolutely terrific with 41 points in each of those two matches and Cleveland will need him to put up the same numbers if they are to pull off the incredible and win Game 7.

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The momentum seems to be with Cleveland, but it`s not the first time it happened in these series and Golden State remains the better team here. The last Game in Cleveland was actually a testament to Golden State’s resilience: they were down 20 after the first quarter, referees were pushing Cleveland from behind, Curry was in foul trouble and Iguodala was useless with a bad back – all these wile Bogut is out for the series. With all these problems and with Lebron James on a complete tear, they still came back on the road and were just 7 points behind in the 4th quarter, until Curry got ejected.

Bogut will still be out for the Warriors and even though he is their best rim protector, his impact is minimal. Ezeli needs to step up for 10-15 minutes though in his place. Iguodala said he is fully fit for Game 7, which is hugely important and Curry is definitely pumped up after feeling that his Game 6 ejection was straight up robbery.

I expect Golden State to start hitting some open threes again, it would be very surprising if they have these problems again. Golden State has not lost 3 consecutive games all year and I doubt they will do it in the NBA finals. They dominated this series and could have won Game 5 or Game 6 if not for those issues with Green, Iguodala, Curry and Bogut. Lebron should have a tougher time winning the game by himself against a healthy pair of Green and Iguodala.

My tip is Golden State Warriors to win and cover the 4 point spread, they showed they have the style and firepower to neutralize Cleveland for most of this series and as long as they don`t miss open threes, they should be fine at Oracle Arena, where they barely lost all season. Point spread is rather low and I love the odds for -4, so I will invest maximum stakes on this bet. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Cleveland Cavaliers 105 – 100.

Pick: Warriors -4
Odds: 1.78 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.80
Event date: 19 June