Warriors – Rockets

Warriors Rockets Game 3 Steph Curry

The Western Conference finals will move to Oakland on Sunday night for Game 3, after the two teams split the first two games in Houston for a 1-1 tie in the series.

After a few shaky weeks at the end of the regular season, which were mostly due to lack of motivation / focus, the Warriors stepped on the gas in the playoffs and started to look yet again like the best team in the world. They have been great particularly since Steph Curry returned two weeks ago, and they opened up the Western Conference finals with a dominating and convincing win in Houston. However, they did not look the same in a Game 2 blowout loss.

The Rockets, who had the best record in the regular season, did well to recover after a 13 point loss in Game 1, and were impressive in Game 2. They moved the ball much better and were able to score 127 points on the Warriors for a 22 point win. However, Houston has now lost home court advantage, and they really need to get something in these next two road games – otherwise the series would be virtually over.

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Team news: Both teams continue to be fully healthy, with the exception of the young Pat McCaw for the Warriors, who is out for the season.

After Game 1 many people (myself included) were suggesting the Warriors might sweep Houston, not only because they won that match – but because of the way they won it, forcing Houston to play out of character, and creating matchup issues for the Rockets. It was an interesting analysis to make and see how the Rockets were forced to play ISO ball and were soundly beaten despite playing pretty well overall.

Credit to Houston for coming back strong in Game 2 and they were definitely more mobile on offense, moving the ball much better, but all that had something to do with the fact that the Warriors came out a bit sloppy and relaxed, also failing to hit shots.

While the series is tied at 1-1, some nuance is needed here, as the two wins do not quite hold the same value. While the Warriors won game 1 by playing their normal basketball, and Houston played well also, Game 2 was different. The Rockets won big, but they shot lights out from the field, and the Warriors were horrible.

Returning at home and with the series now tied, the Warriors will surely not be as lackadaisical as they were in Game 2. The Rockets on the other hand can`t possibly expect the same production from guys like PJ Tucker (8/9 from the field in Game 2), Trevor Ariza (7/9 FG) or even Eric Gordon, who had 27 points.

So far the Warriors proved they can beat the Rockets when both teams are their normal selves, while the Rockets needed to get hot from three and the Warriors to have an off night in order to win. When you add the fact that the Warriors now return at Oracle Arena, where they are almost unbeatable in the playoffs, you have to feel that they will take a 2-1 lead here.

The Warriors have not lost at home in the playoffs in the last two years, and they also haven`t lost consecutive games in the postseason during that stretch.

Look for the Dubs to defend the three point line aggressively like they did in Game 1, a tactic which has worked over and over against Houston in the last few years. Steph Curry should also have a big night after a bad Game 2, and when he is his normal self good things always happen for Golden State.

All things taken into consideration, the Warriors should have enough to win this in double digits. If the handicap line was around 9-10 points I might have stayed away, but 7 points should be within Golden State’s reach.

My tip is the Warriors to cover the -7 (asian) handicap. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Houston Rockets 122 – 107.

Pick: Warriors -7
Odds: 1.98 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.84
Event date: 20 May

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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