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The Golden State Warriors return at home after a successful three game road trip, and they will attempt to maintain their momentum against a Miami Heat side which is back to back on the road.
While I know that 18:00 GMT is an unusually late hour to post, I have a bet I really like here on a player special, and odds weren`t available at too many bookies in the morning. Also, there are more than 9 hours left until the game will start.
The Warriors (7-3, 2-2 home) had a few early struggles this season, already losing three games, which is more than what was expected. Most of the issues were due to lack of focus and / or intensity though, and Golden State seems to have eliminated those from their game lately. The Warriors played very well in their recent three game road trip, defeating the Clippers (by 28), the Spurs (by 20) and the Nuggets (by 19).
Miami (4-5, 1-2 away) is coming after an excellent road win against the LA Clippers last night, but the Heat will be worried about almost blowing a late 25 point third quarter lead, eventually barely edging out the game by three points. Still, a very good victory, and the Heat can now come to Oracle Arena and play without pressure.
Bet on Warriors vs Heat and get a 100% (100 Eur) welcome bonus at Ohmbet now!Team news: Backup PG Livingston was rested by the Warriors two nights ago in Denver and is expected to return for this game, but it`s not 100% clear. There are no other roster issues for the Dubs. As for Miami, they might be without starting SF Dion Waitors for the second game in a row. He is questionable for tonight and the only notable injury worry for the visitors.
The handicap line in this game is set at 15 points and that seems pretty accurate, as Golden State might take its foot off the pedal a bit after the recent wins, and they don`t always blow out opponents in these kind of matches. Miami is also a decent team, so they could keep this within touching distance. The Warriors need to be at their best to cover this spread and there`s just no way of telling if they will be.
A bet that makes a lot of sense to me here is Steph Curry to score more than 25.5 points. Curry is averaging 26.7 so far this season, so from the start, the line is set one point lower than his scoring average.
More importantly, Curry hasn`t scored as much in the last two games (21 vs Spurs, 22 vs Denver). He shot around 50% from the field in both games, so a great percentage, but he didn`t take as many shots as he usually does, letting Durant be more aggressive. Scoring 21 and 22 on only 27 total shot attempts in those last two games was actually really impressive.
Chances are Steph Curry will take back over in this game and shoot the ball more. He hasn`t shot the ball less than 16 times in three consecutive games since the 2015 / 2016 finals (when he wasn`t fully healthy). That`s more than 100 games ago!
Curry is averaging 16.3 attempts per game, and last season against Miami he averaged 20 shot attempts per game. He only scored 21 and 24 points in those two matches against Miami last year, but only due to poor shooting percentage (not because of certain matchup, he was simply struggling in those early days with Durant).
This season Curry doesn`t have such problems, he`s shooting at a very high % night in night out, and if he will get his shot attempts, chances are he`ll be in the 30 point zone. Dragic is not a good enough defensive PG for the HEAT to affect Steph’s percentage.
After two rather quiet nights in terms of scoring, and being in great shooting form both long term and short term, I will back Curry to have a great game here. One potential danger is him not playing his regular 6 minutes in the 4th quarter if the Warriors are up by too many points. However, there`s a good chance that the Heat won`t be down by more than 15 at that point, which is usually the limit at which Steve Kerr rests his starters. Curry can also easily score more than 25 in three quarters as well, so we have that as a backup in case he doesn`t play the 4th.
My tip is Steph Curry to score over 25.5 points, I think he`ll have around 30 here. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Miami Heat 120 – 108.
Pick: Steph Curry over 25,5 points
Odds: 1.80 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.40
Event date: 7 November
