Warriors – Kings

The Golden State Warriors will potentially be shorthanded when they meet the Sacramento Kings on Monday night, with Curry, Durant, Green and Iguodala all being questionable.

Golden State (15-5, 8-2 home) is coming after two easy home wins against the Bulls and the Pelicans, missing some players in both of those games. Durant and Green were both out against the Bulls but the Warriors still won by 49 points (!!), while against the Pelicans they won by 15 without Durant. Granted, the Pelicans game was closer than the score suggested.

The Kings (5-14, 1-9 away) lost a close game at home against the shorthanded Clippers two nights ago, despite having an 18 point lead in the third quarter. It was another poor performance by Sacramento, who is in full rebuilding mode and isn`t expected to win too many games this season. The Kings have the worst offense in the league (94.3 PPG) and the second worse average point differential (-10.8).

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Team news: Curry, Green, Durant and Iguodala are all doubtful for Golden State, and their status will probably be settled a few hours before the clash, or maybe even at game time. Kings are at full strength with the exception of the rookie Harry Giles, who hasn`t played so far this season.

Obviously the Warriors would normally be a colossal favorite at home against the Kings. Prior to news about Curry, Green and Iguodala surfacing (Durant was already doubtful), the Warriors were priced at 1.01 to win. Now the price has gone up to as high as 1.20.

There`s no way to know for sure if either of these four players will be on the court for Golden State, but it`s unlikely all of them will miss. Neither is suffering from a serious injury, so chances are the medical staff will clear some of them in order to help the team, and not risk a loss.

As a personal opinion, I can see two of them playing, maybe Curry (who rarely sits out at home) and one of Iguodala and Green. Curry`s injury is actually not that bad, he has a wrist sprain which he got in the 3rd quarter against the Pelicans two nights ago, and he played just fine through it in the second part of that game.

The point spread is now at 12 points and will surely explode towards 15 points or so if even one of Curry, Green or Durant will play (Iguodala`s absence is not affecting odds too much). Chances are that will happen.

However, even assuming all 4 guys will be out, the Warriors could still cover a 12 point spread at home against this Kings side. Obviously 4 important guys missing would be a lot and it would be difficult to cover the spread, but surely doable. The Dubs are actually magnificent ATS when one or two players are missing (we saw their recent 49 point win over Chicago without Durant and Green). Their strength lies in their Curry-led system, which can work (to a lesser extent) even if Steph is out, with Thompson taking over the floor spacing duties.

That is why Golden State has beaten the point spread in something like 12 of the last 15 matches in which Durant was out (not an official stat, but an accurate estimation), because the bookies put too much emphasys on their absences when they miss players. On the other hand, there has never been a case of 4 players missing.

Bottom line, if Steph Curry plays, like I expect him to, this becomes an excellent value bet in which I would have a ton of confidence. If he doesn`t but Durant and / or Green do, there will also be value in the odds.

And if all goes wrong and all 4 doubtful players will be out, a lineup of Livingston, Thompson, Casspi, Bell and Pachulia, with a decent bench, still has an honest shot to cover the spread at home against a lousy Kings team. The Kings lose by an average of 11 points, and the above mentioned lineup, with Golden State`s system, is still above average in the NBA. This is not something you can base your bet on, but it`s a good backup to have if all goes wrong regarding the injuries.

My tip is Golden State to cover the 12 point (asian) handicap. I`m betting high stakes despite all the uncertainty, because I think there`s value in this line at the current moment, given my estimations. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – Sacramento Kings 117 – 95.

Pick: Warriors -12
Odds: 1.96 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.64
Event date: 28 November