Warriors – Spurs

Warriors Spurs Game 5 handicapping

The Golden State Warriors will attempt to win Game 5 at home and end the series against the San Antonio Spurs, as the Warriors are currently leading 3-1 after four games.

The Warriors (58-24, 29-12 home) looked a bit rusty coming into the playoffs, missing Steph Curry and struggling to win games at the end of the regular season. However, even without Steph, they were able to quickly get into playoff mode and play top basketball. That was also facilitated by the fact that the Spurs were the easiest opponent they could have faced in the first round. The Warriors cruised in the first three games, before looking unfocused and too casual in Game 4, losing that one in the last minutes.

The Spurs (47-35, 14-27 away) really had no business being in the playoffs in the strong West, given the fact that they had to play without their main man Kawhi Leonard for virtually the entire season. The Spurs just don`t have the talent without Kawhi, but Popovich`s coaching allowed them to sneak into the post season as a 7th seed. Nevertheless, their lack of talent was obvious so far against the Warriors, even if they managed to steal Game 4.

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Team news: The Warriors will continue to miss Steph Curry and Patrick McCaw, while the Spurs are still without Kawhi Leonard. Coach Popovich will also miss the second consecutive game for San Antonio after the tragic passing away of his wife.

The Warriors are definitely a weaker team without Steph Curry and they would have swept the Spurs with him. That being said, they are still an elite side, and are still so much better than a team like San Antonio.

The Warriors won the first three games by 21, 15 and 13 points, before getting beat in Game 4 in San Antonio. However, that Game 4 is really not that relevant. They shot just 38% from the field and 25% from three, while the Spurs shot 46% from the field and 54% from three. The Warriors also had 16 turnovers to San Antonio`s 8. It was an abysmal performance from the Warriors and a great one for the Spurs, and even in these circumstances it was still a close game until the last couple of minutes.

The Warriors were clearly not focused and they played a horrible Game 4, some people going as far as to say that they didn`t really mind losing that one, as it gives Steph Curry a few extra days to get fit for the second round. That may actually be true. Sure, the Warriors wanted to win, but the urgency was just not there, and they probably had it in the back of their minds that they don`t really need to win it – something which will always make the difference at this level.

Now they will have the opportunity to finish the job at home and will be pumped up for it, as they can`t afford to take another game lightly and get out of rhythm.

Putting aside Game 4, which was an aberration, the Warriors utterly dominated the Spurs in this series, crushing them in the first three games, and things should get back to normal tonight in Game 5.

I reckon the Warriors should be more than 11 point favorites at home against this inferior Spurs side, which really has no answer for them in terms of talent, matchups, playing style, pace or whatever analysis one wants to make. Garbage time could be a danger if the Warriors only lead by 10 – 15 points or so going into the last few minutes, but there will never be a bet without risk.

My tip is the Warriors to cover the 11 point (asian) handicap. Prediction: Golden State Warriors – San Antonio Spurs 114 – 95.

Pick: Warriors -11
Odds: 1.97 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.76
Event date: 25 April

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

6 comments

  1. Wow, cannot stop bleeding.

    • Yea it`s pretty embarrassing and disappointing. I watch the games, I`m doing everything I usually do, the bets are just losing. But it`s not the first time I have a very bad run and I always bounce back stronger. I`m not worried, it`s up to you if you continue trusting me.

  2. No worries Rostick. Overall you are doing a good job. Actually I like the fact that you tend to have long winning/losing streak. So that I can follow you when you are on fire and bet against you otherwise.

    • Thanks for the support, mate. Yes, I tend to be a tipster of runs, but this has gone too long now (from +35 units or so to -30 in less than two weeks), so I really need to step up. And I will.
       
      So you`re making money on my losses, ah? 🙂

  3. What do we think about Atletico today at the Emirates?

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