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Greetings, everybody, and a Happy New Year to all friends of Betdistrict. My first tip in 2022 comes from the Buenos Aires challenger, where Gonzalo Lama takes on Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna in the semifinals.
Lama is a player who can be quite dangerous on his day, but the 322nd ranked Chilean hasn’t looked fantastic this week. Lama got three tough wins against Descotte, Torres and Pereira, having to work really hard for each of those. It is fair to say that he kind of escaped with his 6-7 6-1 6-4 win against Pereira in the quarters … he was second best for most of the third set and frankly, if not for some big serves in crucial moments, there’s a good chance he would have ended up losing.
Rodriguez Taverna is having the best time of his career right now. The 22 year old will break the Top 300 for the first time after this tournament and he is currently riding an 8 match winning streak, dating back to last year. Taverna opened his Buenos Aires Campaign with a three set win against Rosenkranz, but upped his level in his next matches against Paz (7-5 7-6) and Casanova (7-5 6-4).
The only H2H meeting between these two clay courters took place last year, and Rodriguez Taverna won that in straight sets.
Having watched both guys this week, I fancy Rodriguez Taverna to win and advance to the final. Both players showed good tennis, but Taverna was much more consistent and, what encourages me most, he seemed to raise his level with each passing round.
Lama had good moments too, but he was more unstable and barely got past the finish line in his previous match. I felt that slightly better opposition would have punished him, and Rodriguez Taverna is certainly a higher level of opposition than Pereira was. Lama needs to sustain a high level for the entirety of the match if he is to win this, and he hasn’t shown such ability this week.
All in all, I’m backing Taverna here. My eye test says he’s playing better tennis, and his long term form is much better as well. A stake of 6-7 units seems proper for this bet. Prediction: Gonzalo Lama – Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna 4-6 7-5 2-6.
Pick: Rodriguez Taverna
Odds: 1.65 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 4.55
Event date: 8 January
