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The first round of the eurobasket produced some monumental surprises, and one of them was Great Britain`s win against Israel in overtime. The brits were priced at ~8.50, so it was an incredible feat for them to win this game. After an insane first day, we can expect things to cool down a little bit today.
Great Britain plays without its three best players, Deng, Freeland and Mensah-Bonsu. These are not only their top guys, but also the only ones with international quality. On paper, their squad is extremely poor, with the vast majority of the players being free agents or playing in the improving but still very weak british league.
France was also part of an upset-filled first day, with the second favorites to win the tournament being defeated by Germany (without Nowitski), despite “Les Bleus” being priced at around 1.05. It was an abysmal performance for France, considering that they have an amazing roster. They miss guys like Noah, Seraphin and Turiaf, but their roster is at top class level with Batum, Diaw, De Colo, Pietrus, Gelabale and of course Tony Parker, the best player in the tournament.
France is at least three levels above Great Britain in terms of quality, they are superior at every position on the court, but, as we have seen yesterday, sometimes that doesn`t mean so much. Nevertheless, they should be able to win this big, it`s hard to believe this team can play two bad games in a row. The same for Great Britain, which does not have the quality to produce strong performances consecutively. But the biggest thing here is that the teams are playing twice in two days. Great Britain has no depth, and they had to play overtime yesterday. These weaker teams do not have what it takes to deal with a busy schedule. With inexperienced players, it is widely expected that the brits will collapse physically against a top team like France, which has 12 players of great quality in the roster. Depth in the squad and experience at high level should be the biggest difference makers in this one.
France will want to get ahead early and recover with a strong performance after the loss against Germany, while Great Britain will be tired and maybe a little relaxed after the famous win against Israel. Tony Parker and the other experienced french stars are guaranteed to react after the disaster against the Manschaft, and they will not take their foot of the gas even when leading big, because they will have yesterday`s upset fresh in mind. This has all the makings of a blowout and “Les Bleus” should be able to secure at least a 25 point victory today, while comfortably covering the 20,5 point spread.
Pick France to take this something like 85 – 60 on a strong performance by Tony Parker.
Pick: France (-20,5)
Odds: 1.92 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 5 September
