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Greece hosts Northern Ireland in the 3rd round of the Euro 2016 qualifiers, Group F, as 1.50 odds favorites. Greece did not start the qualification well at all, losing 1-0 to Romania in the first round and only drawing 1-1 in Finland … so no question that the group favorites are condemned to win this game, no other choice. Probably many of Greece’s struggles came because of the coaching change … Fernando Santos left and Ranieri came in his place, apparently he did not figure out his tactics yet.
Greece played the previous home match vs. Romania in front of the empty stadium which was a big handicap, but the suspension is over and today hosts will have full fan support in Piraeus … always a big advantage for them. Greece is expected to field almost the same lineup as in the Finland game (maybe even the same).
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Not even most optimistic Northern Ireland fans would not have believed their team will top the group after two matches. Visitors got a big 2-1 win in Hungary and kept focus to beat Faroe 2-0 at home Saturday … though it was not a good performance and Faroe even missed a penalty. For Northern Ireland would love a draw in Piraeus and will hope to defend a 0-0, maybe create some danger on the break. Northern Ireland has no new injury worries or suspensions.
I don’t think Greece can lose points today, it would really jeopardyze their qualification chances. Greece should be able to win and I think they will also keep a clean sheet … Northern Ireland is not very dangerous offensively and especially do not have a very good counterattacking game, so this will be a handicap for them because that is the only way they can score vs such a tough organized opponent. Greece is a top defensive side as we all know and after conceding in both group games they will be very focused today to not let anything slip. My tip will be Greece to win to nil … expect high concentration level from the hosts and a narrow 1-0 or 2-0 victory (but without being in real danger to lose any points). Correct score prediction: Greece – Northern Ireland 1-0.
Pick: Greece to win to nil
Odds: 2.10 @ Bet365
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.8
Event date: 14 October
