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Both teams were very happy to be drawn together in the playoffs, Greece being the weakest seeded team and Romania the weakest team overall, maybe with the exception of Iceland. This tie is pretty much 50-50 in terms of chances to qualify, though Greece are slight favorites to advance due to their experience, form and slightly better squad. An electric atmosphere is expected at Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus.
The home side has always been underestimated because they lack star players and play an ugly defensive game, but the reality is that Greece is a very strong side, qualifying regularly for the final tournaments. They finished 2nd in the group behind Bosnia despite gaining 25 points from 30 possible. A particular highlight for Greece is their play at home: they haven`t lost a home game in ages, and in the qualifiers they did not concede a single game on home turf 4 wins, 1 draw). Greece is also in fantastic form overall, with 6 consecutive wins, keeping a clean sheet in all of them.
Romania did well to outplay Hungary and Turkey for the second place behind Netherlands in the group. They got the playoff spot in the last round, when they defeated Estonia 2-0, while Turkey lost at home to Netherlands. However, the romanians haven`t been too impressive in the group and they mainly benefited from Turkey`s horrible start to the qualies and from a very lucky win in Istanbul early in the group. The visitors have a relatively young squad with a few experienced guys, the team looks decent overall and they can surely mix it up with mid-class european sides like Greece.
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Team news & lineups
Greece will continue to miss Schalke defender Papadopoulos, while Maniatis is suspended. Romania suffered a huge blow when captain and best National Team player Chiriches got injured over the weekend, and the visitors do not have an adequate replacement for him. Key defensive midfielder Pintilii is also unavailable. Superstar striker Adrian Mutu has again been left out by coach Piturca, which could end up really hurting this team. First choice keeper Tatarusanu is doubtful.
Greece: Karnezis – Torosidis, Siovas, Papasthatopoulous, Holebas – Maniatis, Katsouranis, Tziolis – Salpingidis, Mitroglou, Samaras
Romania: Tatarusanu – Matel, D. Goian, Gardos, Rat – Bourceanu, Lazar – Nicolita, Maxim, Tanase – Marica
The obvious bet here would be a low scoring game, we are talking about two defensive teams that will take no risks in such an important game. Surely Greece and Romania will both go for a defensive approach. However, the odds are ridiculous and you really can`t put money on an under 2,5 at a price of ~1.40., while other “under” bets also have poor value.
I will go with Greece here. These sides are pretty evenly matched, but Greece is a little better and they play at home. It`s hard to see them conceding a goal the way they have been defending (and also looking at their opponent), but over the course of the 90 minutes I reckon Greece can create a fair number of chances and convert 1 or 2 of them. They have Mitroglu in amazing form up front, while Samaras is also a reliable striker. Unlike the romanians, they have the experience of big matches and they can take advantage of the 2 key missings that Romania has in the defensive zone: Chiriches and Pintilii. Greece should be able to edge this at home where they have proved to be virtually unbeatable – home court advantage should make the difference here. Expect a narrow Greek win. Greece – Romania 1-0.
Pick: Greece
Odds: 2.00 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.00
Event date: 15 November
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 2 for 4 in tips on Romania in the World Cup 2014 qualifying round
