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The emerging Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov will look for his first career grass court title today at the Aegon Championships in London, but he will have to get past a seasoned player on the green, Feliciano Lopez.
Dimitrov is playing the best tennis of his life this year, really taking his talents to another level, eligible for the top 10 without question. He did not play as much on grass so far due to his age, but he surely has the game for this surface and played a fantastic semifinal against an in-form Wawrinka yesterday, demolishing the ATP No. 3 with an impressive 6-2 6-4 result. Dimitrov is yet to lose a set this tournament, getting past Ward and Roger Vasselin aside from Wawrinka.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Feliciano Lopez was playing very poor tennis prior to the grass court season, one of his worst starts of the year in his career. However, he managed to steadily improve his level here in London, getting trough a deep draw, defeating Lajovic, Hewitt, De Schepper, Berdych and Stepanek in order to reach the final. Nevertheless, he was very close to losing against De Schepper, while Hewitt and Berdych played terrible matches, so it`s not like Lopez has suddenly became a world beater. Still, his serve has been brilliant this week and a similar display will make it very hard for Dimitrov to find opportunities on the return. Lopez did not lose his serve after the first round, and has allowed only 2 break points in the last 4 matches!
The H2H is 1-0 for Lopez, an easy win in 2010, on grass, but Dimitrov is so much better now, so it`s not really a relevant result. Still, I`d say Lopez holds the matchup advantage due to his fantastic serve and ability on grass courts.
The spaniard is much more experienced on this surface than Dimitrov, and considering grass is extremely tricky, that will make a difference. Dimitrov is playing very good tennis this week and I would expect him to find a way to win this, but it will be extremely tough and we could well see three sets or two tiebreaks. Lopez’s serve is working brilliantly right now so he should be able to cover the 2,5 game handicap or even win this final, but the better value lies in the under/over line, as it gives us more options to win the bet at roughly the same odds. My tip is over 24,5 games to be played. Prediction: Grigor Dimitrov – Feliciano Lopez 7-6 7-6.
Pick: over 24,5 games
Odds: 1.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.76
Event date: 15 June
