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Top-class semifinal in Bucharest at the BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy, as this matchup could always be at least a Grand Slam quarterfinal, so the fans are surely set for a memorable encounter. However, the match also holds some great betting value at a closer analysis.
I talked about Dimitrov yesterday when I picked Stakhovsky to cover a 5 game handicap and I must admit I was just a little bit lucky for that tip to end up voided. I was saying that Grigor looked a little relaxed in training and in the 2nd round, but the Bulgarian improved his level comparable to his first match here against Vesely where he was a bit off his game. Nevertheless, Dimitrov does not look to be in his absolute top form and is posting rather poor stats on the return of serve. Grigor had a great year with quarters at AO + the Acapulco title and has clearly increased his level a lot, but he`s still searching for his rhythm on clay after an unconvincing 3rd round at Monte Carlo and 2 matches here in Bucharest.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
I watched Monfils training earlier this week and I was saying to myself that he must be a clear cut favorite to win the tournament – he was that good and focused! He went on to dismantle Berankis in his second round match (after a bye in the 1st) but had big problems Friday against Mathieu, having to save no less than 6 match points (!!) in order to end up a 3-6 7-6 6-2 winner. Indeed, Mathieu played some great tennis here in Bucharest and it was always going to be a tough match, but nevertheless Monfils should have not got himself in such a drama. Similar to Dimitrov, Monfils had a great year (Doha final, Montpellier title), but looked to be a little off his game in the first clay court tournament he played at Monte Carlo (2nd round exit, lost to Carreno Busta).
Don`t get me wrong, both players have shown solid tennis this week and now in the semifinals are surely motivated, despite this only being a 250 tournament. The fact that the stadium will be packed tomorrow will also help with focus, so expect Dimitrov and Monfils to give their best on the court. The point is that neither player looks to be in blistering form in order to be able to get an easy win, while also neither is playing too poorly in order to lose bad. In these circumstances I expect an evenly matched clash, as there is little separated these two. Dimitrov is probably the slight favorite here as he`s the better player at the moment, he`s playing better than monfils in the last couple of weeks, but the odds are too low on him and Monfils is on a high after that morale boosting win last round – not to mention he looked fantastic in training every day.
The H2H is 1-0 for Monfils, a 7-6 6-3 6-4 win at US Open in 2011, but I don`t think this stat is too relevant for this analysis. The weather should be fine for tennis today in Bucharest so expect great shotmaking, good serving and probably 3 sets. Gael shouls be able to hold his serve with the kind of stats Dimitrov is posting on the return, the Bulgarian also serves solid, so this could be decided by the slimmest of margins. My tip will be over 22,5 games to be played, which could also be a winning bet in 2 sets (7-6 6-4). Prediction: Grigor Dimitrov – Gael Monfils 4-6 6-3 6-3.
Pick: over 22,5 games
Odds: 2.00 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 26 April
