Dimitrov – Kyrgios

Grigor Dimitrov and Nick Kyrgios will square off Saturday night on Center court at the Australian Open, in a mouthwatering 4th round clash.

Dimitrov had a marvelous 2017, finally reaching his true potential and playing consistently at a high level for the entire year. The Bulgarian ended the season with the best performance of his career, winning the ATP Finals, a result which propelled him to the 3rd place in the rankings. This year Grigor was a bit shaky so far, losing in the semis at Brisbane (against Kyrgios), and having big problems in the second round here at the Australian Open, when he barely edged the 186th ranked McDonald (8-6 in the decider). Still, Kyrgios was much better in the third round, defeating Rublev in 4 sets.

Nick Kyrgios was on fire so far this year, winning the title at Brisbane and navigating a difficult schedule to reach the 4th round here in Melbourne. Kyrgios met two very dangerous opponents in the first three rounds, Troicki and Tsonga, but did a professional job to defeat them 3-0 and 3-1 respectively. Still, his third round match with Tsonga was extremely tight and could have gone either way, Nick winning it 7-6 4-6 7-6 7-6.

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Dimitrov leads the H2H 2-1 (all matches on hard courts), but Kyrgios won the last meeing just a couple of weeks ago, 3-6 6-1 6-4 in the semifinals at Brisbane. This being said, a matchup analysis won`t reveal any advantage for one player or the other in terms of playing styles.

Listen, Dimitrov hasn`t been at his absolute best so far this year, playing a bit below the level which allowed him to end 2017 in a spectacular fashion. However, he has still played very well, and most importantly showed a clear improvement in his last match against a dangerous Andrey Rublev.

The Bulgarian is learning how to raise his level in the advanced rounds of tournaments like all big champions do, he has done it often last year, and chances are he will do it again here at the Open. Dimitrov himself stated that he felt good against Rublev, relishing the challenge to be pushed and forced to raise his level by solid opposition.

Kyrgios is definitely in good form and has played a bit better tennis than Dimitrov this year, but he`s far from untouchable, and Tsonga showed that in the third round. Kyrgios was very lucky to edge that match in 4 sets despite breaking serve only once. The three close tiebreaks he won could have really gone either way, and Kyrgios actually won less total points than Tsonga.

Dimitrov has become an accomplished big tournament player during last year, he has a semifinal to defend here at the Open, and I expect him to be ready for this one. Look for a tight battle between two fine players, but I`m actually giving Dimitrov the first chance despite the odds, as the feeling is he`s the more stable and consistent player right now.

All in all, my tip on this fourth round clash will be Grigor Dimitrov to cover the +1,5 set handicap. It`s great that we get competitive odds for a bet which would win even if Grigor loses the match in 5 sets. Prediction: Grigor Dimitrov – Nick Kyrgios 7-6 4-6 6-7 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Dimitrov +1,5 sets
Odds: 1.70 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.60
Event date: 21 January