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First seed Grigor Dimitrov will hope to hold off Sergiy Stakhovsky when the two will meet in the ATP Bucharest quarterfinals. As always, the analysis will aim to give us the best bet here, so let`s get going.
Dimitrov came into this tournament on the back of a 3rd round showing at Monte Carlo where he needed 3 sets to defeat both Granollers and Ramos and lost to Ferrer (4-6 2-6). The bulgarian had a very good season, including QF at Australian Open and a title at Acapulco, he has clearly matured and has the required quality to even reach top 10 this year. However, he hasn`t really adapted to clay yet – he was ok at Monte Carlo but not great and the same can be said about his first match in Bucharest, where he defeated Vesely 7-6 6-2. I saw him a little bit off his pace and struggling to dominate on his service games.
Watching Dimitrov a little bit in training this week I noticed him very relaxed, joking around, missing some shots, maybe not putting the best effort into it – it`s an ATP 250 tennis tournament after all. I wanted to take advantage of this against Vesely but I feared the Czech is not yet ready to take on the top players. This time around, Dimitrov will meet a different animal.
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Clay isn`t really the best surface for Stakhovsky and he was beaten in 2 sets by Gabashvili at Monte Carlo last week, but the ukrainean played a very good tournament so far in Bucharest. He started slow against wildcard Ciorcila in the first round but recovered to win in 3 sets 2-6 6-2 6-1 and then defeated a very solid and in-form clay specialists in Berlocq, again in 3 sets. Sergiy had a relatively decent year so far, mediocre form from him, the highlight being reaching the Sydney semifinal earlier this season.
The H2H is 1-0 for Stakhovsky, an easy 6-2 6-4 win in 2011 on hard, but of course Dimitrov has massively improved since then and this will be a totally different encounter. Today in Bucharest at the time of the match it should be pretty humid out there, maybe a few showers, it will also be evening so the courts will be a little bit slower – which I`m not very sure will favor any of the two players, but theoretically the better player should be the most affected as he won`t be able to play his best game.
Dimitrov is for sure the better player here and the surface suits him better, but I do feel the odds are a little off, with the bookies pricing Grigor as low as 1.10. Stakhosky is a solid player, he`s versatile and has proved able to frustrate or even defeat the best players in the world on his day, even on clay. I think he`s more motivated and with his experience he could take advantage of the wet conditions and make this closer than expected. Even though I expect Stakhovsky to lose this one, a 5 game handicap is huge and is well within his reach – even Vesely lost by only 5 games against Dimitrov. My tips is Stakhovsky +5 game handicap (if he loses by 5 we get our money back). I think the odds and the lines are way too much in Dimitrov’s favor – given the analysis I don`t expect his absolute best tennis today and I really trust this bet. Prediction: Dimitrov – Stakhovsky 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Stakhovsky (+5 game handicap)
Odds: 2.07 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.56
Event date: 25 April
