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Guinea Bissau will host Zambia in Group E of the 2017 African Cup of Nations qualifiers. With just two rounds to go, Guinea Bissau leads the group standings with 7 points, while Zambia and Congo have 6 points each. Kenya is already out of the fight with just 1 point.
The top team in the group will qualify, while the second placed team also has a small chance to do so (the best 2 of the 11 second placed teams go trough). Guinea Bissau and Zambia won`t have the luxury of knowing Congo’s result at the start of the match, as Congo plays Sunday.
Guinea Bissau is a decent, well coached team that claimed some very good results in these qualifiers, well over their possibilities. They lost 2-4 at home to Congo, but did the job with two 1-0 victories over Kenya and held Zambia to a 0-0 draw earlier in the group, which allowed them to take leading position in the group standings. All of Guinea Bissau’s squad plays in Europe, mostly in Portugal, but there are no difference makers – no players that are impressing at a high club level. Defense and discipline has been the main factor for the team’s success in this qualifying group.
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Zambia is on the back of a satisfactory 1-1 draw in Congo, a result that keeps them in the hunt. Despite being just third in the group, Zambia is yet to lose so far in the 4 matches played. They have more quality in their ranks than Guinea Bissau, but haven’t really showed it so far. Zambia is on the back of two friendlies against Togo and Gambia in which they failed to score a single goal, prompting the players to say that they want to find the net today.
Both teams would want to win this in order to get the edge in the qualification race and a draw might prove to be insufficient for either of them, depending on what Congo does Saturday and on the results in the final round – when Zambia hosts Keya and Guinea Bissau travels to Congo for a crucial match.
However, one thing is certain – a loss would be a disaster for both Zambia and Guinea Bissau. A draw would still keep them in the race, so I fully expect a very careful approach from both sides, with the main objective being not to lose. Both will try to keep a clean sheet and patiently look for a winning goal over the 90 minutes.
In both Zambia’s and Guinea Bissau’s matches in this group an average of less than 2 goals have been scored per game. Zambia has scored a grand total of 4 goals in 8 matches in 2016, but also allowed only three (though not all games were played with the first team). The first leg was a boring 0-0 affair. Add all these to the huge stakes this match has and it seems unlikely for us to see goals here. I feel that the odds on the goals market should be lower for the under than the current 1.65 price.
Expect a balanced, evenly matched clash with nobody taking risks, which should translate into a classic African underish match. Zambia is the better team, but the hosts are defending well and home court advantage is always huge in Africa, so that should make it very difficult for the visitors to create chances. My tip is under 2,5 goals. Prediction: Guinea Bissau – Zambia 0-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.65 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.20
Event date: 4 June
