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Robin Haase and Feliciano Lopez square off today in the semifinals at Gstaad.
Haase has been bad this year, he found some form recently but not anything out of the ordinary. He reached a final at Schveningen challenger, then 2nd round at Hamburg and now this semifinal at Gstaad. He was not too impressive here in Switzerland. He had a tough two-setter against Souza (6-4 7-6), then a clear win against Tipsarevic (6-2 6-2), with the serbian playing absolutely horrible, unforced error after unforced error. Finally, Haase defeated Graonollers in a decidint set tiebreak, and Granollers is anything but a dangerous player at the moment. The dutch reached this semifinal based on a slight improvement in his form and especially because of the easy draw he had.
Now, Lopez is another story. The spaniard is clearly the better player, and when he is in form, he can play top 15 tennis, maybe even top 10. And now he-s in excellent form, after a poor start of the season. R32 at Roland Garros, R16 at Queens, title at Eastbourne, R32 at Wimbledon and then 2nd round at Hamburg, readjusting to clay. He beat players like Monaco, Simon, Verdasco, Dodig or Benneteau in this time-span. Here at Gstaad he has been excellent, with easy wins over Hernych and Kuznetsov before beating Wawrinka 6-4 2-6 4-3 (ret.). The swiss retired, but he stated that he started feeling pain in the late periods of the second set, so Lopez was leading until then.
I really can`t see Haase reaching an ATP final when he`s not even close to his best level of play.
H2h is 2-1 for Feliciano, he won easily last year at US Open in the last meeting between the two. On clay Haase leads 1-0, but that win came in Kitzbuhel 2011, one of the two tournaments he won (the other one: Kitzbuhel 2012). And it was a hard fought victory.
It`s true that the dutch has a better game for clay, but Feliciano is also able on this surface, he reached 2 ATP finals on the red dirt, one of theme here at Gstaad (2006). It`s not like Haase is a machine on clay and Lopez can`t play on the surface. Yes, it favors Robin a bit, but the fact that the clay is faster here is an advantage for the spaniard.
Lopez served very well all weak and he will keep Robin on his toes with his serve&forehand combo. Lopez is a great offensive player, while Haase doesn`t defend so good, his movement is limited, and so this will be a bad match-up for him today. The dutchman is also making more unforced errors, he is just the second best player here, and in weaker form. It`s hard to envision Haase doing something against an in-form Lopez. You have to be able to stay consistent, to serve at a high level, to hit passing shots and vary the game. Only the serve is in Robin`s repertoire at the moment, but even that wasn`t so good in this tournament
Surely Lopez can blow this opportunity to reach the second final in one month. Not the way he is playing at the moment.
Full stakes on Lopez, with big confidence. Good luck.
Pick: Lopez
Odds: 1.68 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 6.8
Event date: 27 July
