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Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz will square off in a crucial Bundesliga encounter, with both teams looking to gain an edge in the relegation battle. The two sides are tied in points, 3 lengths above the direct relegation zone.
Hamburg is currently sitting on the 16 place, which is the relegation playoff position, but they have the same number of points as Mainz, who is on 15th place. Hamburg is in very poor form lately, losing three matches in a row, and the last two defeats were really ugly – 1-2 against last placed Darmstadt and 0-4 against Augsburg. Hamburg suspended three players this week (Djourou, Bahoui and Gotz) due to lack of intensity in training, so atmosphere at the club can`t be good.
Mainz was not expected to have problems with relegation, but a horrible run of games between mid-March and mid-April almost ruined their season. The visitors did manage to regroup lately and have been solid in the last three outings – beating Hertha Berlin, drawing at Allianz Arena with Bayern (!!) and narrowly losing at home to Borussia Monchengladbach.
Bet on Hamburg vs. Mainz and claim your 100% (100 Eur) free bet at Ohmbet now!Team news & lineups:
Ekdal, Gotz, Adler, Muller, Djourou, Bahoui and possibly Mathenia will not play for Hamburg. Berggreen and Bussmann are out for Mainz, while Holtmann and Latza are questionable.
Hamburg: Mathenia – Diekmeier, Papadopoulos, Mavraj, Santos – Sakai, Jung – Hunt, Holtby, Kostic – Wood
Mainz: Huth – Donati, Bell, Hack, Brosinski – Latza, Frei – Oztunali, Bojan, Blasis – Cordoba
Despite being tied in points with Hamburg, Mainz is a better team and that can be also seen from the goal difference the two sides have: -11 (Mainz) compared to -29 (Hamburg). The visitors are also in much better form and have a healthier roster.
Mainz has played well lately against some of the top teams in the league and that will give them confidence coming into this match. For Hamburg, the situation is completely opposite, as they have been dirt poor lately and their morale is horrible – proof of that being the fact that they had to suspend players from not training properly.
Both teams would love a win here, as it would save them from direct relegation and give them a great chance at avoiding the playout position (at the expense of the other). However, in such a big match, avoiding a loss will be the primordial objective.
Realistically speaking a draw would probably satisfy both sides, as they would both put 4 points between them and the relegation zone with two rounds left to go. They would be left fighting each other from a distance in the last two rounds in order to avoid the playout position and I can`t imagine anybody risking this scenario for the sake of a win.
I believe a draw is the most likely result in this match, but I`ll secure the bet in case the superior team manages to pull off a result – and that team is Mainz. The odds are excellent for the bet I`m choosing, as Hamburg is considered a favorite just because they play at home. It`s true that Mainz isn`t a good away team at all (3-2-10), but that`s pretty much the only thing that works in Hamburg’s favor. It should earn them a draw, but not more.
My tip is a draw on the ‘Mainz win no bet’ market. Prediction: Hamburger SV – Mainz 1-1.
Pick: Draw – Mainz win no bet
Odds: 2.20 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.60
Event date: 7 May
